Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
AI-related equities posted mixed results. Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) rose by 7.8%, Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) gained 4.09%, while BullFrog AI (private company) declined 2.22%.
Semiconductor stocks were generally weaker. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.94% for the day and recorded a weekly loss of 0.89%. The 2x leveraged ETF tracking Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA) declined 1.52%, whereas Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) saw a notable gain of 9.58%.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) advanced 10.07% this week, following reports that President Trump announced the company would be responsible for developing the next-generation U.S. Air Force fighter jet, the F-47.
FedEx (NYSE: FDX) declined 4.9% over the week after releasing its fiscal Q3 earnings, which were mixed. While revenue came in ahead of expectations, earnings fell short. The company also revised down its full-year profit and revenue guidance, which may have weighed on investor sentiment.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) fell 8.04%, despite reporting a strong Q2 data center revenue performance, which more than doubled year-over-year, and Q3 revenue guidance that exceeded expectations. However, the company’s gross margin outlook came in lower than anticipated, potentially contributing to the share price decline.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
The automotive sector also saw steep declines due to mounting concerns over trade barriers. Volkswagen fell 4.15%, BMW dropped 3.53%, Mercedes-Benz lost 2.44%, Porsche declined 3.4%, and Stellantis retreated 3%. Carmakers are considered among the most vulnerable to trade tensions due to their extensive international exposure and manufacturing operations in Canada and Mexico — both of which have been primary targets of Trump’s tariffs.
Nike reported third-quarter financial year 2025 revenues of $11.3 billion (€10.4bn), which was a year-on-year decrease of 9% on a reported basis. This drop was primarily because of a decrease in demand for the company’s core footwear and apparel divisions, with sales lagging particularly in China. Equipment sales increased. Nike Direct revenues also plunged 12% to $4.7bn (€4.3bn), with its gross margin falling 330 basis points to 41.5%. The company’s chief financial officer (CFO), Matthew Friend, highlighted during an investor call that geopolitical dynamics, tax regulations and new tariffs were some of the factors causing uncertainty. The company’s share price dropped more than 5% in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Friday morning.
Written by Kevin XIA
Technology and AI: Chinese tech stocks have been performing well, with US-listed companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and PDD Holdings seeing significant gains. This is partly due to the softening of governmental oversight of tech giants and the rise of innovative AI companies.
Real Estate: China's property sector has been a focus for policymakers, with efforts to stabilize and boost consumption. However, a prolonged housing slump continues to impact consumer spending.
BYD Company Gained 1.1% following the announcement of new electric vehicle charging technology. However, its stock experienced volatility last week. On March 21, the stock closed at 388.00 HKD, down 5.86% from the previous day's close of 412.15 HKD. However, it had seen gains earlier in the week, such as a 2.82% rise on March 19.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan’s stock markets posted gains over the past week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 1.68% and the broader TOPIX climbing 3.25%. Foreign investor interest contributed to the strong performance, particularly boosting shares of Japanese trading companies. The yen weakened slightly, trading at the lower end of JPY 149 against the U.S. dollar, compared to JPY 148.6 the previous week. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell marginally from 1.54% to 1.52%.
At its March 18–19 monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Inflation data showed Japan’s core consumer price index rose by 3.0% year-on-year in February, exceeding consensus expectations of 2.9% but slowing from January’s 3.2%. Early results from Japan’s spring wage negotiations (“shunto”) indicated steady wage growth, which aligns with the BoJ’s focus on monitoring a virtuous cycle between wages and prices to sustain inflation expectations.
Foxconn is close to a deal with Mitsubishi Motors to produce electric vehicles (EVs), marking a significant step for both companies. Mitsubishi aims to expand its EV lineup while cutting costs, and Foxconn seeks to diversify beyond iPhone assembly into EV manufacturing. Meanwhile, SoftBank has acquired US chip start-up Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion to strengthen its AI infrastructure strategy, complementing its existing investments like Arm and Graphcore. These developments highlight Japan's push toward innovation in EVs and AI.
Mitsubishi Motors The potential partnership with Foxconn could positively impact Mitsubishi's stock by signaling innovation and cost-efficiency in the EV market. However, the company has yet to confirm the deal officially.
SoftBank Group SoftBank's acquisition of Ampere Computing further solidifies its position in the AI sector. This move may bolster investor confidence in SoftBank's long-term growth strategy centered around AI infrastructure.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
Aviation: India's aviation sector is showing a healthy picture, with domestic air passenger traffic showing a robust 11.04% year-on-year growth in February. International passenger traffic too has shown robust growth, with Indian carriers carrying approximately 280.9 lakh passengers between April-January, a 14.8% rise over last year and a 41.3% rise over pre-Covid levels.
Among airlines, Akasa Air achieved a 4.7% share of the market by transporting 6.59 lakh passengers, while SpiceJet recorded a 3.2% share with 4.54 lakh passengers.
Credit rating agency ICRA has a "stable" outlook for the industry, supported by stronger pricing power and moderate growth prospects. Domestic air traffic is expected to progress 7-10% year on year during FY2025 and FY2026, while international passenger traffic for Indian carriers will grow 15-20%.
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Ltd. (NSE:GRSE): GRSE stock rose over 6% on March 20, 2025, following the company's announcement of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Nagaland's Public Works Department (PWD). This comes after the company's good run of growth, its stock has risen 127% year-to-date and 30.6% last week. The MoU, signed on March 19, 2025, is for the supply of eight double-lane modular Steel Bridges under the Make in India initiative. This is GRSE's first significant collaboration with a Northeastern state, with the aim of enhancing regional infrastructure. Being amongst the premier defense-sector shipbuilders, GRSE has reported 37.69% revenue growth YoY and a net profit increase of 11% in Q3 FY 2024-2025. It is projected to grow by analysts but they perceive resistance at ₹1,800-₹2,000 and support at ₹1,640.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
The technology sector has shown the highest price rise of 3.04.% among all the sector indexes in the US. This might be one result of the US’s Artificial Intelligence initiative, which gives consumer confidence. In the previous week, the stock price of Intel shares increased by 14%, following the appointment of the new CEO Lip-Bu Tan.
Microsoft (MSFT) has shown fluctuations in the previous week. It opened at a price of 392.35 and has been going up and down until it reached the week’s low of 376.99, but eventually closed with a 2.58% rise at 388.56. The P/E TTM was at 31.31. The net outflow was 108.52M, with most of the orders being small orders.
Written by Kathy TAM
The consumer sector in Europe showed a mixed performance during the week. The STOXX 600 index, which includes consumer stocks, gained 0.8% during the week, driven by strong performances in resources and consumer sectors. This rise reflects resilience in consumer spending, supported by a slight improvement in consumer confidence, which rose to -13.6 in February 2025, marking the highest level in four months. Cross-border e-commerce continues to grow, with 30% of online buyers in the EU making purchases from sellers in other EU countries. However, inflation concerns persist, as evidenced by recent economic data showing headline inflation expected to average 2.3% in 2025. Despite these challenges, household spending is projected to strengthen from an annual rate of increase of around 0.9% in 2023-24 to 1.3% in 2025-27, supported by rising wages and easing inflation.
Ryanair's stock experienced a slight decline after releasing its February passenger data, despite a 14% increase in passengers to 12.6 million. The stock fell by 0.5% due to concerns over future growth rates, as investors focused on the airline's forward-looking guidance. Ryanair aims to carry nearly 200 million passengers in fiscal year 2025, but achieving this target may require slowing passenger growth to 5.2% in March, partly due to the Easter holiday impact. Additionally, Ryanair remains involved in a legal dispute with the European Commission over state aid to SAS, reflecting broader tensions between airlines and EU regulators.
Written by Kevin XIA
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 2.1% to close at 23,959 points on March 14, despite losing 1.1% for the week. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 2.7% to finish at 8,877 points, reflecting positive sentiment towards mainland companies. The Hang Seng TECH Index increased by 2.3% to close at 5,880 points, driven by technology stocks. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index also showed positive movements, with the former rising by 1.5% and the latter by 1.8% over the week.
The technology sector in both mainland China and Hong Kong is seen as a driver of growth, particularly with stocks related to AI and e-commerce. This trend is supported by positive US-China relations and ongoing investments in AI technologies. The consumer sector is also expected to benefit from policies supporting domestic consumption, such as childbirth incentives in Inner Mongolia and other regional initiatives. These measures are anticipated to boost consumer-related stocks and contribute to economic recovery. Additionally, the financial sector in both regions is supported by ample liquidity and regulatory support for capital markets, which helps maintain investor confidence.
Several key stocks have been in focus during the week. Guming, a Chinese bubble-tea giant, is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO, targeting US$200 million. This move highlights the growing interest in consumer goods companies in the region. Tech blue chips like JD.com, Alibaba, and Baidu have shown resilience, benefiting from positive trends in AI and e-commerce. In mainland China, companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi are also gaining attention due to their strategic investments in technology and innovation. Despite these positive developments, investors remain cautious about potential challenges, including economic recovery and policy support falling short of expectations.
Written by Kevin XIA
The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, rose by 0.72% to close at 37,053.10 on March 14, 2025. This increase was part of a broader trend where most Asian markets experienced gains, buoyed by positive sentiment from Wall Street.
Japan's economic sectors have been influenced by various policy and market developments. The technology sector is gaining attention due to investments in innovation and strategic partnerships. The energy sector is undergoing changes with plans to phase out the feed-in tariff system for solar power by 2032, aiming to consolidate small-scale projects and promote larger operators. Additionally, Japan is focusing on expanding its agricultural exports, including rice, with a goal to increase exports eight-fold by 2030. The country is also promoting its cold chain logistics standards in Southeast Asia to boost food exports.
Several Japanese companies have been in focus recently. Trading giants such as Itochu Corp., Mareni Corp, and Mitsubishi Corp. saw their shares rise after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increased its stakes in these firms. This move is perceived as a vote of confidence in Japan's economic landscape. Despite these positive developments, challenges persist, including a decline in the Leading Economic Index (LEI) due to weak new orders for machinery and construction, which may signal caution in business investment decisions.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
Energy Sector: This week, India made a significant adjustment to its energy strategy. On Wednesday, Parliament passed an amendment bill that separates oil operations from the mining sector. The aim is to encourage foreign investors to enter India's oil and gas exploration industry, with hopes of attracting more international capital to enhance domestic energy self-sufficiency and drive industry modernization. At the same time, updated data shows that since February, Indian refineries have been turning to crude oil imports from Latin America and Africa, with a slight increase, to replace Russian oil. In February, Russian oil imports dropped by 3% compared to the previous month to around 1.54 million barrels per day, marking the lowest share since January 2024. This shift allows Indian refiners to reduce the instability in the global oil supply chain and increase the diversity and stability of their energy supplies.
Indian Railway Finance Corp Ltd (NSE: IRFC): This stock will be in the spotlight next week as the board will discuss and approve the proposal for the second interim dividend of the fiscal year on Monday, and the stock has announced a record date of March 21 for dividend payment. However, the stock has fallen more than 20% so far this year (down 4.03% this week, now at 117.03) following the stock market crash since November 2024.
Nevertheless, the company's development is encouraging, with a post-tax profit exceeding ₹6,400 crore as of last March. It is the third-largest public sector non-banking financial company in India and has provided crucial financial support for nearly 80% of the Indian Railways' locomotive and rolling stock. The company also has a positive outlook, with reports indicating that it is undergoing strategic diversification into sectors such as power generation and transmission, mining, fuel, coal, warehousing, telecom, and hospitality. The returns from these higher-margin projects are expected to be 3 to 5 times higher, which could enhance its net interest margin (NIM) and profitability. Additionally, the existing ₹60,000 crore in unabsorbed depreciation buffers ensures the company will not face significant tax burdens in the short term, supporting better earnings retention.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
The financial sector has shown the highest price rise of 2.07% among all the sector indexes in the US. This might be one of the results of the continuously low interest rate in the US, which lowers the cost of borrowings for investors. It is expected that the interest rate will be low for a longer time, which further increases investors’ confidence.
In general, all of the sectors in the US have shown a price rise in the previous week, with the lowest growth rate of 0.81% in the real estate sector.
Apple (AAPL) has shown fluctuations in the previous week. It opened at a price of 236.950 and has been showing a downward trend until it reached the week’s low of 230.20, but eventually closed with a 1.91% rise at 241.84. The P/E TTM was at 38.39. The net outflow was 90.78M, with most of the orders being small orders.
Written by Kathy TAM Ka Ioi
The European technology sector indeed faced significant challenges in early 2025, with the Stoxx Technology index declining by 1.2%. This downturn was primarily triggered by a sharp drop in Nvidia's shares on Wall Street, which had a ripple effect on European chip manufacturers. Notable declines included BE Semiconductor dropping 9%, Infineon falling 3%, and ASML experiencing a 6% decline. These losses underscore the interconnectedness of global tech markets and the sensitivity of European tech stocks to developments in the U.S. semiconductor industry.
Luxury goods company LVMH has been experiencing difficulties, particularly in the Chinese market. In the third quarter of 2024, LVMH recorded a 3% sales decline, marking its weakest quarter since the pandemic. This performance reflects broader challenges in the luxury sector, which has traditionally been a standout performer in European markets. The company's struggles are largely attributed to falling sales in China, a crucial market for luxury goods. In the Asia Pacific region, predominantly China, sales fell by 16% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024. Despite these challenges, there are some signs of potential recovery. LVMH reported slightly better-than-expected annual results for 2024, with revenue of 86.15 billion euros ($94.27 billion), surpassing analyst forecasts. However, the market reaction was cautious, with LVMH shares dropping 5% following the announcement.While LVMH's CEO Bernard Arnault expressed optimism to 2025, particularly regarding the U.S. market, analysts caution that the luxury sector still faces significant challenges, including a slow-to-recover Chinese market and the risk of new American taxes.
Written by Alexander ANTONIOU
Escalating US tariffs on Chinese imports significantly impact the economy. Specific Chinese sectors are particularly targeted in a new American CFIUS memo aimed at restricting spending on strategic sectors like technology and energy. US plans to strengthen restrictions on US semiconductor technology exports to China (such as cutting-edge Nvidia chips), reducing investor confidence in Chinese technology and AI prospects.
Despite tightening pressure on Chinese imports and exports, the New International Land- Sea Trade Corridor, a new major logistics network for international trade out of China, has transported record units via intermodal rail-sea service in the first two months of this year. According to the China Railway Nanning Group, transport volume has already exceeded the total from 2019, with a year-on-year increase averaging 58.4%. Demand for freight transportation surged in February, pushed by increases in timber on stone materials from Guangxi, with tea and roll paper from Hunan province.
XIAOMI-W (1810.HK) gained 0.29% this week. The tech giant debuted its new SU7 Ultra SUV on Thursday, citing over 6900 pre-orders within ten minutes. Xiaomi successfully launched the SU7 line, one of the first vehicles on the market to seamlessly link to a smartphone.
CATL: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750.SZ) is down −4.08% this week, despite a deal to provide their newest battery technologies to Baidu to develop competitive ‘robo-taxi’ driverless vehicles.
NEW WORLD DEV (0017.HK) gained 8.80% this week. The Hong Kong based real estate and infrastructure conglomerate reported a net loss of HK$6.63 billion on Friday, for the first half ended in December.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
BSFI In the cash segment, FIIs had a net outflow of 22,011 crore rupees, while DIIs had a net inflow of 22,252 crore rupees, providing some support to the market. In February, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued to divest from the Indian stock market, selling shares worth 35,694 crore rupees, mainly due to concerns about short-term valuations and corporate earnings. As capital continued to flow into the US market, the engagement between the Chinese government and business leaders has inspired optimism about a potential economic recovery (the Hang Seng Index rose by 18.7% within the month), and the "sell India, buy China" trade is likely to continue in the short term.
However, India's structural growth drivers remain unaffected. With the improvement of economic fundamentals and earnings growth in the coming six months, foreign institutional investor (FII) funds are likely to return to India. At the same time, in the near future, with the increase in government capital expenditure following the implementation of election- related measures and budget proposals, credit growth will accelerate. Large banks are capable of taking advantage of this cycle, although profit margins may face slight pressure, as the reduction of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India leads to the repricing of loans while the cost of deposits remains high. Public sector banks will benefit from the resolutions of the National Company Law Tribunal and the write-back of provisions. The Reserve Bank of India has decided to lower the repo rate to prevent a sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee, inject sustained liquidity into the banking system, and relax the risk weights for lending to non-banking financial companies. These measures are likely to support the future growth of the banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) sector. Therefore, when the Indian stock market has been continuously declining, the BFSI sector has the potential to be the main driving force leading the market higher in the next round of rebound.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (NSE: TCS) It experienced a decrease of 249.10 points (6.68%) in the past week and dropped to its lowest level in 52 weeks (3457.35) on Friday, February 28th. The announcement on that day of the extension of the cooperation with DNB Bank of Norway did not help this IT leader recover after the stock market crash.
The main reason was that market concerns about the slowdown of the US economy and the rising inflation expectations triggered by Trump's tariffs dampened market sentiment. At the same time, the weak global economic data made the situation even worse, and most Asian stock markets declined. In addition, after NVIDIA released its latest earnings report, its performance was not as strong as expected, and its share price dropped, triggering the selling of artificial intelligence stocks and major technology stocks. The share prices of Infosys, Mphasis, and HCL were all under pressure during the same period, decreasing by 5.45%, 9.66%, and 4.79% respectively.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
U.S. stocks struggled this week, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.01%, the S&P 500 falling 0.43%, and the Nasdaq declining 0.47%. Analysts pointed to persistent inflation concerns as a key driver, noting that stronger-than-expected inflation data and a stable labor market have dampened expectations for further accommodative measures from the Federal Reserve. Despite Atlanta Fed President Bostic's forecast of two rate cuts this year, uncertainty remains due to factors like tariffs and other economic challenges. Market experts have raised concerns over the Trump administration’s ongoing tariff policies. Following last week’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, the administration has now indicated it may expand these measures to other goods, including automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and timber. Analysts warn that such a move could disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and exacerbate inflationary pressures, further straining the economy. In addition, recent economic data failed to alleviate investor concerns. The S&P PMI dropped to 50.4, signaling a slowdown in economic activity, while the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 64, reflecting weaker consumer confidence. On top of that, the housing market showed signs of weakness, with new home starts down 9.8% and existing home sales falling 4.9%. These indicators have further fueled concerns about a potential broader economic slowdown.
The banking sector experienced a general decline this week, with notable decreases observed across several major institutions. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) saw a reduction of 4.46%, Bank of America (BAC) decreased by 1.54%, Wells Fargo (WFC) fell by 2.14%, Morgan Stanley (MS) dropped by 4.51%, Goldman Sachs (GS) declined by 3.87%, and Citigroup (C) experienced a decrease of 3.1%. On the other hand, stocks related to quantum computing continued to show upward movement. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) increased by 13%, SEALSQ (SEAL) rose by 10.36%, Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) gained 6.47%, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) saw an increase of 3.99%, and Quantum (QUBT) rose by 3.6%.
Shares of UnitedHealth (UNH.US) dropped 10.91% this week following reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the company’s patient diagnosis practices. Sources revealed that UnitedHealth is being scrutinized for allegedly securing additional benefits from the Medicare Advantage program, a practice that could fall under civil fraud. Walmart (WMT.US) saw a dramatic 6.53% drop in its stock price on Thursday, the largest single-day decline in 15 years, contributing to an 8.9% overall weekly decrease. The downturn followed the release of the company’s 2024 financial results, which included a bleak outlook for 2025. The market experts indicate that the forecast, falling short of consumer expectations, raises concerns that the coming year may present significant challenges for the retail industry.
Written by Hong Yee Ching Robin
European stock markets closed higher Friday as a busy week for earnings drew to a close. The regional Stoxx 600 index ended the session 0.52% higher, after earnings disappointments led to two sessions in the red. Germany’s DAX closed 0.12% lower as the country heads into its election weekend, while France’s CAC 40.
A European fund focused on defense companies has garnered $1 billion in assets. The Future of Defence UCITS ETF, which has the ticker NATO on the London, Italian, Swiss and French stock exchanges, employs a “NATO screen” to provide exposure to companies domiciled in NATO or allied member states, according to its manager HANetf. The fund, launched in 2023, has accumulated $1.08 billion in total assets under management, with $210 million in new fund flows this year. The ETF holds about 60 stocks and has risen more than 15% this year, outperforming the broader benchmarkers Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500.
Ferrexpo shares rebound by 15% Shares in London-listed miner Ferrexpo rebounded by about 15% a day after it lost nearly a third of its value. The stock plunged on Thursday after news emerged of the Ukrainian government’s decision to move ahead with the nationalization of the company’s Poltava mining and processing plant. Reuters news agency reported that the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigations was awaiting court approval to seize the assets, amid allegations of misappropriation of funds related to illegal mining. The company’s shares also saw about half their value lost in a trading day earlier this month when Ukraine filed a $3.8 billion civil claim against the company. Shares had retraced much of their losses.
Written by David LU Zhiyuan
As February 2025 nears its end, Chinese equities saw a broad rebound ahead of the Chinese New Year, supported by renewed investor confidence and expectations of economic stimulus. The SSE Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the SZSE Component Index gained 4.44%, driven by strong performances in the technology and consumer sectors. The HSI increased by 1.90%, reflecting optimism in Hong Kong’s market as policymakers signaled potential measures to boost economic stability. Seasonal demand ahead of the holiday provided additional support to retail and travelrelated stocks, while institutional investors adjusted portfolios in anticipation of upcoming policy announcements. Analysts expect further government initiatives to sustain momentum, though trading activity may slow temporarily as the holiday period approaches.
Ice and snow economy: The release of ice and snow economy policies targets industry growth to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, emphasizing winter sports, tourism, infrastructure, and equipment upgrades. These policies balance supply-side upgrades and demand-side incentives, promoting high-quality development. Functional apparel is a key beneficiary, with down jackets and outdoor apparel seeing strong sales in the winter season. The 2025 Asian Winter Games in Harbin, alongside recent tourism-boosting policies, is expected to sustain consumer enthusiasm and drive growth in key destinations and related industries. EV sector: New energy vehicle (EV) stocks showed resilience, supported by favorable policies aimed at boosting industry growth. Leading EV makers rose modestly, with BYD (1211.HK) gaining over 3%. On the policy front, recent announcements highlighted increased subsidies for EV purchases in rural areas and expanded support for charging infrastructure, aiming to accelerate EV adoption and promote green consumption. Analysts believe these measures, coupled with long-term goals for carbon neutrality, will strengthen the EV supply chain and drive sustainable growth. The focus on expanding charging networks and reducing ownership costs is expected to solidify consumer confidence and enhance the competitiveness of domestic EV manufacturers.
Alibaba (HKG:9988) surged 13.74% last week, reflecting renewed investor confidence following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Jack Ma. The stock's rise was fueled by optimism over potential regulatory easing and a more favorable business environment for China's tech giants. Market participants speculated that the discussion could signal a shift in policy stance, supporting Alibaba’s long-term growth prospects. Analysts note that while the rally underscores improving sentiment toward the sector, sustained gains will depend on concrete policy measures and broader economic recovery trends. Same trends are found for make Chinese high-technology firms. Shanghai Phoenix (SHA:600679) dropped 30.51% last week, marking a significant decline in its stock price. The sharp decline may be attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, as well as concerns over the company's growth prospects in a highly competitive e-bike market. Analysts suggest that the drop reflects market caution toward speculative trading, highlighting the need for sustained business performance to restore investor confidence.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan's stock markets experienced a decline over the past week, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling by 0.95% and the broader TOPIX Index down by 0.82%. This downward trend was influenced by several macroeconomic factors, including a strengthening yen and rising yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The yen appreciated to approximately JPY 150.4 against the U.S. dollar, a notable shift from about JPY 152.3 at the end of the previous week. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is under pressure to adjust its monetary policy in light of rising inflation and economic growth data. The yield on the 10-year JGB reached its highest level since 2009, climbing to 1.43% from 1.35%, reflecting market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the BoJ. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated readiness to increase JGB purchases if long-term yields rise sharply, signaling a potential shift in policy if economic conditions continue to improve. Japan's GDP expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.3%. This growth, coupled with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, suggests a resilient economic recovery that may prompt more aggressive monetary tightening from the BoJ.
Energy Sector: In a significant development for the energy sector, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Nippon Steel would abandon its acquisition plans for U.S. Steel but would instead invest heavily in the Pittsburgh-based company. Trump also hinted at potential tariffs on Japanese exports if trade deficits are not addressed, which could impact various sectors reliant on exports. Technology and Supply Chains: Japan is facing challenges due to China's tightened export controls on semiconductor raw materials, including gallium and germanium, which are critical for electronics and automotive industries. Japanese companies, being major consumers of these materials, are concerned about disruptions in supply chains as compliance with new regulations becomes increasingly complex.
Nissan: Following the collapse of merger talks with Honda, Nissan is exploring new strategic partnerships, including potential investments from Tesla. A high-level initiative led by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga aims to court Tesla as a strategic investor to bolster Nissan's manufacturing capabilities amid concerns over foreign takeovers. Following reports of this initiative, Nissan's shares surged by as much as 11.5% before closing up 9.5% on Friday.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
With lingering pessimism, the Indian market this week saw marginal changes. The NIFTY 50 Index dropped for a modest 0.16% and the SENSEX Index fell 0.13%. Data from LSEG shows that India has underperformed major global markets as of 20 February 2025. Analysts attribute the market downturn to US tariff policies, weak corporate earnings, a falling rupee, high valuations, and slowing economic growth. International investors note India lacks near-term catalysts, as key events like the budget and rate cuts are already priced in. Despite recent declines, Indian equities remain overvalued, dampening sentiment and capping short-term upside potential. Foreign investors' capital outflows have moderated compared with the previous week but remained substantial, with a new outflow of 7793 Crores. A Bank of America survey released this week showed that fund managers allocate a 19% net underweight position in the Indian market. As for individual investors, The Financial Times reports that household savings that were channeled into the stock market through 'Systematic Investment Plans' (SIPs), an investment plan methodology offered by Indian Mutual Funds that enables investors to conduct dollar-cost-averaging investments focusing on the small-to-mid cap Indian market, may have been eroded significantly amid the 21% drop in the BSE Small-Cap Index. The analysis opines that this may create a "dangerous pressure" for individual investors to redeem their investments, driving further dips. Investors await greater clarity on geopolitical developments and corporate performance in the coming month. Analysts anticipate that the current market weakness will likely persist until at least the end of March.
According to a statement from HSBC, India’s private sector activity accelerated in February, with the HSBC Flash Composite PMI rising to 60.6 from 57.7 in January, marking the fastest growth in six months. The surge was driven by a strong Services PMI of 61.1, up from 56.5, while the Manufacturing PMI dipped slightly to 57.1 from 57.7, still above the long-run average of 54.1, signaling robust sector health. Export orders grew sharply, particularly for services, supported by global restocking and a depreciating rupee. Improved margins, driven by rising output prices and easing input costs, boosted optimism. Hiring also increased, with services outpacing manufacturing. Of 100 indicators, 65% showed upward trends in Q3 FY2025, up from 55% in Q2, reflecting a broader recovery.
LIC Housing Finance (NSE: LICHSGFIN): On 18 February 2025, Tuesday, Reuters reported that LIC Housing Finance, a housing finance company registered with the National Housing Bank (NHB), plans to raise 24 billion rupees ($276.13 million), including a greenshoe option of 14 billion rupees, through a sale of bonds maturing in five years. The company had made waves by raising over 10 billion rupees through a reissue of 7.74% February 2028 bonds last week, receiving bids totalling 10.03 billion rupees at a yield of 7.68%. This showcases strong investor confidence in the company’s debt offerings, and possibly the Indian housing market inthe long term. The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 5.8 times, below its 5-year P/E median of 7.3 times. This week, Motilal Oswal has maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 690, implying a 26.5% upside from current levels. Analysts see that the company’s affordable housing foray, strong provisioning buffers, and stable NIMs are expected to support long-term growth. As per the current market research conducted by CMI, the Indian housing finance market is expected to record robust growth with a CAGR of 24.1% from 2024 to 2033, providing a positive outlook for LIC Housing Finance.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
This week, the three major indexes have shown fluctuations but an overall upward trend. S&P 500 increased by 1.13%, NASDAQ Composite index increased by 1.82% whereas Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.34% throughout the week. Towards closing, S&P 500 drop by 0.01%, NASDAQ Composite index increased by 0.41% and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.37%. Looking into several important economic events in the US, Crude Oil Inventories was at 4.070M, which was higher than the forecast value of 2.400M but lower than the previous value of 8.664M, which implies a bearish trend for crude oil prices. US 10-Year Note Auction was at 4.632%, slightly lower than the previous 4.680%. US 30-Year Bond Auction was at 4.748%, which was also lower than the previous 4.913%. Initial Jobless Claims was 213K, which was lower than the forecast value of 217K and the previous value of 220K, indicating bullish effect on USD.
The communication services sector has shown the highest price rise of 0.41% among all the sector indexes in the US. It was one of the US’s strongest-performing stocks partly as because of the growing awareness and development of technology. It is projected to be growing consistently in the future years. In general, more than half of the sectors in the US have shown a price drop in the previous week, with the lowest rate of -1.11% in the health sector. Energy sector showed the lowest price rise of 0.13% throughout all the sectors.
Tesla (TSLA) has faced substantial fluctuations in the previous week. Following the announcement of the Chinese EV company BYD to integrate Deepseek into its technologies on 11/2, the price of Tesla dropped by 6.3% to the week’s low of 326.44, eventually closing with a 0.03% reduction. The P/E TTM was at 174.43. The net outflow was 317.52M, with most of the orders being small orders.
Written by Kathy Tam
The DAX has continued its remarkable rally, reaching an all-time high of 22,625 points last week, with a 3.3% weekly gain and a 13.1% year-to-date increase, far exceeding its historical average of 1.9% for this period. This surge is fueled by optimism over potential peace in Ukraine, anticipated billions in reconstruction investments, and hopes for a pro-business government following Germany’s federal election on February 23. However, analysts caution that the DAX's current price-to-book ratio of 1.8 and forward P/E ratio of 14, both above historical medians, signal potential overvaluation risks. While 58% of Stoxx 600 companies have exceeded earnings expectations this quarter, concerns over U.S. tariffs, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties suggest that the DAX may face resistance near its fair valuation range of 21,600 points, making the upcoming election a critical factor for market momentum.
The European defense sector is undergoing a transformative period, marked by the European Commission's €1.065 billion EDF 2025 Work Programme, which prioritizes innovation in areas like AI, cybersecurity, and energy resilience while supporting SMEs through the EU Defence Innovation Scheme (EUDIS). At the 2025 Munich Security Conference (MSC) between February 14 and 16 , leaders called for increased defense spending to 3-4% of GDP, with NATO urging member states to meet these targets to address a €500 billion defense spending gap over the next decade. Europe has already provided €62 billion in military aid to Ukraine, surpassing U.S. contributions in total assistance, highlighting its growing role in global security. The push for centralized procurement and cross-border collaboration aims to reduce inefficiencies and strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy, while sustainability and dual-use technologies are becoming integral to modernization efforts.
This week, Rheinmetall AG has solidified its position as the most significant single stock in Europe, with shares surging 11% to €909, marking a year-to-date increase of over 30%. The stock’s rally is fueled by expectations of increased European defense spending, with NATO potentially raising its target to 3-5% of GDP and Germany committing to surpass the 2% threshold. Analysts have upgraded Rheinmetall’s price targets to as high as €1,080, citing its strategic role in supplying critical military equipment like 155mm artillery shells and advanced defense technologies. With Europe projected to close a €500 billion defense spending gap over the next decade, Rheinmetall is poised for sustained growth.
Written by Alec
This week saw Mainland Chinese stocks rise: Shanghai Composite grew 0.43% andShenzhen Component gained 1.2% on Friday, in a response to a statement by People’s Bank of China pledging looser monetary policy. The central bank forecast stable economic growth in China for 2025 despite the producer price index falling 2.3% in January from December, marking the 28th consecutive month of factory deflation. Consumer price index rose an unexpected 0.5% from January 2024, despite a yearlong slump in housing, which has strongly encouraged consumer saving. Meanwhile, Trump has held off on immediately pushing reciprocal tariffs on China. Hang Seng Index jumped 7.04% as hype over DeepSeek continues to drive tech strength as investors invested heavily in artificial intelligence within China.
Following the launch of DeepSeek, AI optimism has turned the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index into the world’s best performer, according to Bloomberg. Top Chinese entrepreneurs gathered with President Xi Jinping, including Alibaba’s Jack Ma, indicating support for China’s private sector after years of crackdowns. This event further boosts interest in China’s technology sector, with investors expecting pro-business measures from Beijing. Despite increased government incentive to boost the housing sector, Moody’s lowered its credit rating of Vanke, Chinese state-backed real estate developer, from B3 to Caa1. Moody cites poor financial performance for the downgrade, as Vanke struggles with a liquidity crisis and weak sales due to struggles in the housing sector. In 2021 the default and subsequent liquidation of China Evergrande flagged the housing sector’s downturn; China’s government is working on a plan to plug Vanke’s 50 billion yuan funding gap to prevent further setbacks in the sector, according to Bloomberg.
TENCENT (0700.HK) shares were set to open up 6.6% on Monday (17 Feb) after announcing beta testing of DeepSeek within its Weixin messaging app. Guming Holdings Ltd (1364.HK), the bubble tea maker, slumped 6.4% from the IPO price of HKD9.94. Guming raised HKD1.81 billion from the sale of shares; Huang River investment, a Tencent Holdings subsidiary, invested USD25 million. Super Telecom Co.,Ltd (603322.SS) shares rose 4% as the company appointed Guo Yanqi as CFO succeeding Hu Hongyue.
Written by Kevin XIA Yunchu
Japan's economy demonstrated resilience in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an impressive annualized GDP growth rate of 2.8%. This growth exceeded analysts' expectations and marked the third consecutive quarter of expansion, indicating a robust recovery trajectory. The primary drivers of this growth were strong corporate spending and a positive contribution from net exports. Exports benefitted from a weaker yen, which made Japanese goods more competitive in international markets. Despite these encouraging figures, there are underlying concerns regarding domestic consumption. Private consumption, which accounts for a significant portion of Japan's GDP, has not kept pace with the overall economic growth. Consumers are grappling with rising prices due to inflationary pressures, leading to cautious spending behavior. The latest data indicated that consumer confidence remains fragile, with many households prioritizing savings over discretionary spending. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy but is facing increasing pressure to adjust its stance in light of the improving economic conditions. Speculation about potential interest rate hikes has begun to circulate among investors, particularly as inflation rates have consistently exceeded the BoJ's target. The central bank's next meeting will be closely watched for any signals regarding future policy shifts.
The Japanese stock market exhibited mixed performance during the week, reflecting the broader economic landscape. The Nikkei 225 index managed a slight gain of 0.04%, closing at 28,500 points. This modest increase was primarily supported by gains in the financial sector, where stocks like Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rose by 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Investors are optimistic about the potential for higher interest rates, which could enhance profitability for banks and financial institutions. Conversely, the auto sector faced headwinds as concerns grew over potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports. Toyota Motor Corporation, one of Japan's largest automakers, saw its shares decline by 2% amid these fears. The company is already dealing with supply chain challenges and rising material costs, which have put pressure on profit margins. Analysts are closely monitoring how these external factors will impact Toyota's sales performance in key markets like North America.
Fast Retailing Co., Ltd., known for its UNIQLO brand, experienced a significant decline this week, falling by 6.81% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly earnings due to rising costs and supply chain disruptions. The company has been working to mitigate these challenges but faces stiff competition in both domestic and international markets. Similarly, shares of Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co., Ltd. dropped by 6.49%, impacted by fluctuations in metal prices and concerns over global demand for materials used in electronics and batteries.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
The Indian stock market did not perform very well last week, with the benchmark index falling for the eighth consecutive trading day. The Sensex benchmark index dropped by 2.47%, while NIFTY saw a decline of 2.85%. The main influencing factor was the political actions in the United States, particularly the idea of implementing a comprehensive "reciprocal tariff" system, which increases the risk and uncertainty for the economies that may be impacted. According to economists from international investment banks, the next tariff issue under Trump’s administration is expected to open a new "trade front" in Asia. Among emerging Asian economies, India is particularly vulnerable to U.S. import tariffs. With Thailand, they are the two economies most likely to be impacted by reciprocal tariffs from the U.S., with tariff increases expected to range between 4% and 6%. Given the overall slowdown in economic growth, the impact of reciprocal tariffs is especially significant for India. At the same time, the Indian rupee continues to weaken, and the ongoing depreciation of the rupee against the U.S. dollar remains a key reason why domestic investors are waiting for stabilization in the national currency, especially after the Reserve Bank of India announced interest rate cuts. Domestic investors are reluctant to take new positions in their portfolios, as the weakened rupee is expected to drive foreign investors to shift from the stock market to currency and bond markets, leading to further asset sell-offs. Following recent geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices have become highly volatile, making it difficult for companies to control profit margins. This is reflected in the performance for the third quarter of 2025, with downward pressure on the stock market exacerbated by the lack of early buying behavior from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) as the financial year comes to a close.
The NIFTY Auto index continued its decline this week, falling by 6.08%. This follows a reduction in the Ministry of Commerce's capital expenditure allocation for the fiscal year 2025, from ₹11.11 billion to ₹10.18 billion. This cut has negatively impacted the commercial vehicle sector, shattering the hopes of a much-needed boost for this struggling industry. Analysts state that the government’s capital expenditure initiatives directly affect sales in the commercial vehicle and ancillary sectors. Market experts indicate that this year, the pace of national highway construction has slowed, and the central government has shifted focus to election-related activities, which has hurt the sector. This week, Prime Minister Modi's visit to the U.S. included talks with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, with Tesla continuing to wait for entry into India. India is one of the world’s largest automotive markets, but Tesla faces significant obstacles due to the country’s high import tariffs on cars. India recently introduced a new policy offering extended tariff benefits for foreign car manufacturers that commit to local production, specifically for fully imported electric vehicles. Additionally, India's electric vehicle (EV) market is still in its nascent stages, accounting for just over 2% of total car sales last year. However, the government aims to change this by raising the EV market share to 30% by 2030.
Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL): This week, Tata Steel’s stock declined by 0.84%, losing 1.14 points. During a meeting on Friday, the Tata Steel Board reviewed and approved a fundraising initiative through non-convertible debentures (NCDs). The company plans to raise ₹30,000 crore by issuing 300,000 five-year NCDs with a face value of ₹1 lakh each. Recently, Indian rating agencies upgraded the bonds of this blue-chip steel company from AA to the highest rating of AAA, with a stable outlook. The upgrade was primarily driven by the likelihood of its UK assets achieving breakeven in the second half of the fiscal year 2026. It also reflects the strategic relationship between Tata Steel Limited (TSL) and its promoter, Tata Sons Private Limited, as well as Tata Sons' strong financial flexibility. Despite the positive fundraising news, the company has outstanding bonds exceeding ₹12,800 crore, with ₹670 crore of debt set to mature next month. On the same day, its stock closed down 1.32% on the Bombay Stock Exchange, at ₹134.40 per share.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
This week, market sentiment was rather poor, with all three major indices experiencing slight declines: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.24%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.53%. Several economic data releases this week presented a mixed outlook. Regarding the nonfarm payrolls data, the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, significantly lower than the revised 307,000 jobs in December and the forecasted 170,000 jobs. However, other data signals were more positive, such as the U.S. unemployment rate, which dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%, the lowest level since May. This suggests that the labor market remains relatively healthy, which could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift its neutral stance on interest rate cuts.As for industry PMIs, the ISM Services PMI for January, after a downward revision for December, dropped from 54 to 52.8, significantly lower than the expected 54.3, possibly due to the negative impact of tariffs. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in December to 50.9 in January, exceeding the expected 49.8. In December, job openings in the labor market decreased by 556,000 to 7.6 million, lower than the market expectation of 8 million. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for February 2025 dropped from 71.1 in January to 67.8, below the forecasted 71.1. This marks the second consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since July 2024. Furthermore, the public's inflation expectations for the coming year surged from 3.3% to 4.3%, reflecting concerns about a potential resurgence of high inflation, which has raised market caution. The combination of this week’s employment data and comments from former President Trump regarding tariffs has dampened market risk appetite, increasing risk-aversion sentiment. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly dipped before rising above 4.51%. Concerns about a potential trade war, the possibility of weakening oil demand, rising U.S. crude oil inventories, and Trump’s reiterated commitment to increasing U.S. oil production have all put pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil fell by 2.11%, while Brent crude oil declined by 1.33%. Meanwhile, gold rose by 2.23% this week.
Affected by the overall market trend, semiconductor stocks generally declined this week, with AMD falling by 7.24%, TSMC dropping by 1.53%, and Wolfspeed decreasing by 13.05%. In contrast, nuclear energy stocks surged across the board, with Centrus Energy jumping nearly 30%, Oklo Inc. rising over 22%, and NuScale Power increasing by more than 14%.
Aurora's ADR (AUR) rose by 17.46%, as the company’s AI platform, GPTBots.ai, was enhanced through the integration of DeepSeek LLM. Amazon (AMZN) declined by 3.59%, due to first-quarter earnings guidance falling short of expectations and capital expenditures exceeding projections. Tesla (TSLA) dropped by 10.52%, and it sold 63,238 China-made vehicles in January, representing an 11.5% year-on-year decline and a 32.6% month-on-month drop, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.
Written by David LU Zhiyuanu
Last week, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets showed notable gains in the first week after the Chinese New Year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) increased by 2.3%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) rose by 3.22%, reflecting optimism in the domestic markets. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged by an impressive 5.05%, signaling strong investor confidence in the region. These increases occurred despite external pressures, including tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump on Chinese products. The positive performance could be attributed to post-holiday market recovery, investor optimism about China's economic resilience, and expectations of domestic policy support to counter external challenges. However, ongoing trade tensions remain a potential risk for sustained growth.
Last week, the Chinese and Hong Kong markets experienced notable fluctuations across various sectors. Apple concept stocks rose against the trend in the tech sector, with AAC Technologies (2018.HK) surging over 7%. This came amid reports that Apple is developing a more advanced Siri digital assistant with stronger conversational capabilities, aiming to surpass OpenAI’s ChatGPT and other voice services. Meanwhile, chips, internet, and securities services industries declined, reflecting broader weakness in these sectors. The gaming sector outperformed significantly after the National Press and Publication Administration approved 112 domestic online games in November 2024, marking the second consecutive month with over 110 game approvals, signaling a strong recovery in this industry. In contrast, the electric vehicle (EV) sector underperformed due to news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in BYD to below 5%, further scaling back its long-term investment in China’s largest EV maker as the company refocuses on U.S. investments.
Hangzhou Raycloud Technology Co Ltd (SHA. 688365) has increased by 36.46% in the passing week. The 36.46% surge in the past week suggests strong market confidence, likely driven by positive earnings expectations, industry growth in cloud services, or strategic advancements. As a tech company, it may benefit from investor interest in high-growth sectors post-Chinese New Year. Beijing Thunisoft Co Ltd (SHA. 300271) has increased by 20.05% in the passing week. The 20.05% increase reflects optimism in the software and IT services sector. This growth could be linked to favorable policies, new contracts, or recovery in the technology sector. Investors may see potential in its role within China's digital transformation initiatives.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan's stock markets declined over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index decreasing by 2.0% and the TOPIX Index by 1.8%, as hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) strengthened the yen. This impacted the profit outlook for Japan’s export-heavy industries. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond increased to 1.28% due to expectations of further interest rate increases by the BoJ. Data indicated a sharp rise in nominal wages in December and a second consecutive month of growth in real wages, alongside a rebound in household spending. The BoJ's January meeting summary revealed discussions about the divergence in monetary policies between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), noting concerns over potential market fluctuations and increased flexibility in the BoJ’s monetary policy due to the Fed's expected pause in rate cuts.
Energy Sector: Donald Trump announced that Nippon Steel had abandoned its plan to acquire US Steel, but would invest heavily in the Pittsburgh producer. Trump mentioned the prospect of this investment at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Although details of the investment remain unfinalized, Trump said he would meet with Nippon officials to work out the details. The United Steelworkers union, a major opponent of the acquisition, remains concerned about Nippon Steel. Trump also stated that he would consider tariffs on Japanese exports if the U.S. trade deficit wasn't eliminated and that he would unveil reciprocal tariffs on other nations the following week. Furthermore, Japan would be buying more U.S. liquefied natural gas.
Renault has restarted discussions with Foxconn, a Taiwanese iPhone contract manufacturer, regarding its stake in Nissan. This follows the collapse of merger talks between Nissan and Honda. Renault is also looking for new investors, including approaching technology companies like Apple. Renault's search for new investors stems from concerns about potentially depressed shares in Nissan, which lacks a new partner. At present, Renault holds a 36% stake in Nissan, including 18.7% held in a French trust that it wants to offload. Although Renault is open to selling its shares, Nissan has the first right of refusal. Nissan is also searching for a strategic tech partner after ending talks with Honda to create the world’s fourth-largest carmaker.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
This week, the Indian market faced notable uncertainty ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate decision on Friday, February 7. Concerns over monetary policy led foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to withdraw over ₹8,800 crore from Indian equities, creating significant pressure on the rupee, which fell to a historic low of 87.79 against the US dollar. Market performance was volatile. The NIFTY 50 Index reached a weekly high of 23,773.55 on Wednesday, February 5, before failing to break the 23,800 resistance level and slipping below the 23,500 support level. On Thursday, February 6, it also fell below its 50-day moving average. Despite these corrections, the NIFTY 50 Index rose by 0.96% for the week, while the SENSEX Index outperformed with a 1.36% gain. On Friday, February 7, the RBI announced its first repo rate cut since 2020, lowering it from 6.5% to 6.25%. The decision, though expected, was a response to declining corporate profitability, which contributed to India’s underperformance against other Asian markets in 2024. However, the RBI also downgraded its 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 7.2% to 6.7%, citing ongoing risks such as geopolitical tensions, protectionist trade policies, commodity price volatility, and financial market uncertainties. While the rate cut was a positive step, the lack of additional liquidity measures and the downgraded forecast disappointed the market, preventing a rebound on Friday. With limited room for fiscal stimulus due to budgetary constraints, economists expect the RBI to take a central role in supporting the economy. Analysts anticipate further rate cuts of 0.5% to 1% to stimulate growth.
The real estate sector continued to underperform, with the NIFTY Realty Index falling by 2.86% during the week and 11.81% year-to-date. After delivering a strong 65% return over the past two years, the sector appears to have entered a correction phase. Slowing housing sales, resulting from high property prices, have negatively impacted real estate companies’ revenues and cash flows. According to PropEquity, residential real estate sales in India’s top nine cities fell by 9% in 2024, with new supply dropping by 15%. Despite these challenges, the recent RBI rate cut is expected to benefit the sector by lowering borrowing costs and improving affordability, which could support demand in the coming months.
National Mineral Development Corporation Ltd (NSE: NMDC): NMDC, a government-backed enterprise specializing in mineral resources, delivered strong performance this week, with its stock rising by 7.36%. The rally of the domestic mineral supplier was supported by higher domestic demand for infrastructure and hence metals, the imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, and global supply chain challenges due to uncertain development of global tariff policies. The RBI’s rate cut further boosted sentiment, as lower borrowing costs are expected to support infrastructure development and commodity demand.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
This week, the US stock market continued to rise, with the S&P 500 up by 1.74%, the Nasdaq rising by 1.65%, the Dow Jones up by 2.15%, and the Russell 2000 increasing by 1.4%. It is expected to mark the best performance in the first five trading days of a presidential term since President Reagan's inauguration in 1985. As Trump softened his rhetoric regarding tariffs, the US dollar weakened significantly against major currencies this week. The US Dollar Index posted its largest weekly drop since November 2023, while gold prices continued to rise, increasing from 2.740 to 2.777. Meanwhile, US Treasury bonds saw little price movement, with the 10-year bond yield almost unchanged compared to the previous week, following a sharp decline in recent weeks due to concerns that the new administration's agenda would increase government debt and push up inflation. On Tuesday, Trump announced the "Stargate" plan, which involves a $500 billion investment over the next four years to boost AI infrastructure, further fueling market optimism. Additionally, in his speech at Davos, Trump called for Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices and to encourage the return of manufacturing to the US, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices, with WTI decreasing from 77.8 to 74.6. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released a report showing that as of January 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 6,000 from the previous week, marking the largest weekly increase in six weeks. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims rose by 46,000 from the previous week, representing the largest increase since November 2021. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors released a report showing a 2.2% month-on-month increase in US existing home sales in December, marking the highest level since February 2024, highlighting a strong recovery in housing sales.
This week, nuclear energy stocks performed strongly, with NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE) rising by 80.13%, NuScale Power (SMR) up by 27.31%, and Oklo (OKLO), where Ortman serves as a director, increasing by 60.54%. Due to Trump's Stargate Plan, AI-related stocks surged, with Oracle's stock (ORCL) rising by 14%, NVIDIA (NVDA) increasing by 3.6%, and Arm (ARM) up by 8.9%.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares surged by 11.79% this week, as the latest clinical trial results showed that the company's weight-loss drug helped patients reduce 22% of their body weight over 36 weeks. Drone-related stock SES AI Corp (SES.US) soared by over 70% after signing a $10 million contract with two global OEM partners. Blockchain company Diginex (DGNX.US) triggered multiple circuit breakers, with its stock now up by 160.93%.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
European equities extended gains on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 up 0.22% and the DAX rising 0.74% to another record high. Optimism surrounding Trump’s pro-growth policies and easing trade rhetoric buoyed sentiment, alongside strong corporate earnings. Siemens Energy surged 6.6% on favorable analyst commentary about AI-driven infrastructure demand, while Adidas gained 1.9% after upbeat results. UK’s FTSE 100 also neared record levels, supported by rising energy and industrial stocks. Investors are eyeing next week’s ECB meeting, where another rate cut is anticipated, and key macro data including Eurozone PMIs today.
The luxury sector is navigating a challenging landscape as it attempts to recover from recent downturns. Following a period of robust growth post-COVID, marked by double-digit increases, the industry now faces significant hurdles. Analysts predict a slow recovery in 2025, with major brands like LVMH, Kering, and Burberry expected to see modest sales growth of 3% to 4%. Factors such as a sluggish Chinese market, potential new tariffs in the U.S., and cautious consumer spending are contributing to this uncertainty. While some brands are adapting their strategies to retain high-net-worth customers and appeal to the middle class, the overall sentiment remains mixed as the sector grapples with shifting consumer preferences and economic pressures.
Novo Nordisk's shares jumped over 9% after announcing that its new drug, amycretin, resulted in a 22% weight loss for participants with obesity in a clinical trial. The trial involved 125 individuals averaging 93 kg and lasted 36 weeks. Unlike Wegovy, which it resembles, amycretin also targets the hormone amylin, which plays a role in hunger regulation.
Written by David LU Zhiyuanu
As January 2025 comes to an end, Chinese equities displayed mixed performance as markets approached the Chinese New Year. The SSE Composite Index decreased slightly by 0.19%, while the SZSE Component Index fell by 1.62%, with profit-taking in growth stocks continuing to weigh on sentiment. In contrast, the HSI increased by 0.34%, reflecting cautious optimism in Hong Kong's market as investors anticipated stronger economic policies from Beijing. Trading activity was influenced by seasonal factors, with consumer and travel-related sectors seeing some support ahead of the holiday. Looking forward, analysts expect the government to introduce more supportive measures to stabilize growth amid global uncertainties, while the holiday period is likely to bring subdued trading as investors await clearer signals on China's economic recovery.
Ice and snow economy: The release of ice and snow economy policies targets industry growth to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, emphasizing winter sports, tourism, infrastructure, and equipment upgrades. These policies balance supply-side upgrades and demand-side incentives, promoting high-quality development. Functional apparel is a key beneficiary, with down jackets and outdoor apparel seeing strong sales in the winter season. The 2025 Asian Winter Games in Harbin, alongside recent tourism-boosting policies, is expected to sustain consumer enthusiasm and drive growth in key destinations and related industries. EV sector: New energy vehicle (EV) stocks showed resilience, supported by favorable policies aimed at boosting industry growth. Leading EV makers rose modestly, with BYD (1211.HK) gaining over 3%. On the policy front, recent announcements highlighted increased subsidies for EV purchases in rural areas and expanded support for charging infrastructure, aiming to accelerate EV adoption and promote green consumption. Analysts believe these measures, coupled with long-term goals for carbon neutrality, will strengthen the EV supply chain and drive sustainable growth. The focus on expanding charging networks and reducing ownership costs is expected to solidify consumer confidence and enhance the competitiveness of domestic EV manufacturers.
Zhongbai Group (SHE:000759) surged 54.42% last week, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the A-share market. The rally was driven by market speculation surrounding potential reforms in the retail sector and expectations of policy support for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Analysts suggest the stock's sharp rise may also be linked to improved consumer sentiment and increased activity in the domestic retail market but caution against overheating due to speculative trading. Shanghai Phoenix (SHA:600679) dropped 30.51% last week, marking a significant decline in its stock price. The sharp decline may be attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, as well as concerns over the company's growth prospects in a highly competitive e-bike market. Analysts suggest that the drop reflects market caution toward speculative trading, highlighting the need for sustained business performance to restore investor confidence.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan’s stock markets rose over the week, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 3.85% and the TOPIX Index up 2.67%, as Japanese exporters benefited from U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision not to impose new tariffs. However, yen strength, supported by government and Bank of Japan (BoJ) actions, posed a modest headwind. The yen appreciated to the high JPY 155 range against the USD. The BoJ raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, marking its third hike in a year. This move, along with an upward revision to inflation expectations for 2025, signals potential further rate increases later in the year. Japan’s core consumer price index rose 3.0% year-on-year in December 2024, exceeding the BoJ’s 2% target and supporting monetary policy normalization. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield also rose to 1.23%.
Japan’s largest banks, including MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho, are nearing or surpassing key valuation levels for the first time in nearly a decade, as expectations rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will increase interest rates and further normalize monetary policy. MUFG is now trading above its book value, while SMFG and Mizuho are at or close to this level, driven by the anticipated end of Japan's long-standing negative interest rate policy. Analysts predict that the average price-to-book ratio for the three megabanks could reach 1.1–1.2 by mid-2025. While megabanks benefit from improving market conditions and international expansion (e.g., MUFG generates over half its revenues abroad), smaller regional banks continue to trade at significantly lower valuations, reflecting persistent challenges.
Fuji Media Holdings is in crisis after allegations involving Masahiro Nakai, a former SMAP member and Fuji TV star, led 80 major advertisers, including Toyota and McDonald’s, to pull ads. Activist investors have criticized the company’s poor handling of the scandal, accusing it of governance failures and moral corruption. In response, Fuji Media announced an independent investigation, though its limited press access and muted response have drawn further backlash. Nakai denied allegations of violence but announced his retirement, while the company’s shares rose on speculation of asset sales and management changes. The scandal has reignited concerns about harassment in Japan’s media industry and could have lasting financial impacts despite limited short-term effects. Analysts warn advertisers may not renew contracts, and investors see the crisis as a chance to push for governance reforms. Fuji Media’s significant assets, including real estate and stock holdings, remain undervalued, with shareholders calling for management changes to unlock potential value.
Written by Kevin XIA Yunchu
The Indian stock market experienced notable volatility this week. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, faced significant declines, closing at 76,330.01 (-1.36%) and 23,085.95 (-1.47%) respectively. Financial sectors were hit the hardest, especially with investors winding up positions due to the last day of FaO expiry. Analysts attribute the market downturn to reactions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US and budget announcements in India.
IT and Technology: The technology sector remained resilient despite the broader market turbulence. A number of IT companies, including TCS and Infosys, reported strong earnings, which somewhat helped buffer the negative sentiment across the market. Oil & Gas: The oil and gas sector was under pressure this week. This stemmed from global events, including US announcements to boost crude output, leading to Brent crude prices settling at $78 per barrel, a 4% drop over 5 days. Banking and Finance: The banking sector experienced considerable selling pressure. Stocks of India's major banks likenICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were particularly impacted, with the sector index dropping by 1.42%.
Adani Enterprises: An FPO announcement led to significant movement in Adani Enterprises' stock, which saw a decline of 6.29%. Investors remained cautious, leading to considerable offloading of positions. Wipro and Tanla Platforms: Several stocks, including Wipro and Tanla Platforms, are set to trade ex-dividend next week. This captures the interest of long-term investors looking for dividends.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
In the past week, the three major indexes have demonstrated bullish trends. This might be a consequence of the Labor Department’s inflation report which showed a slowdown published by the US . S&P 500 showed a bullish trend throughout the whole week, closing at 5996.66 with a 1% increase. NASDAQ Composite Index was also rising. Although there were some slight drops at the beginning of the week, it started rising and reached 19630.20 when it closed, which was a 1.51% increase. A similar trend is also seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which ended at 43487.83, a 0.78% increase. Looking into several important data in the US, Crude Oil Inventories declined by 1.962M, which was higher than both the previous (-0.959M) but lower than the forecast value (-3.500M). The Initial Jobless Claims was 217K, which was higher than both the previous value of 203K and the expected value of 217K. This indicates a bearish change for this index.
The US consumer discretionary sector has shown the highest rise of 1.71% in price in the previous week. From the previous data, it has already shown an increasing trend, which might potentially be driven by a slowdown of inflation rises. Although the consumer discretionary has been increasing, the spending intention is still lower than 2021 levels. In general, most of the sectors in the US have shown a price rise in the previous week, with the highest rate of 1.71% in consumer discretionary and the lowest of 0.1% in the utilities sector. Whilst the real estate sector showed a decline of 0.1% in price level and the health sector dropped by 0.67%.
Amazon (AMZN) has fluctuated in its stock prices but shown an overall increasing trend and closed at the week’s highest of 225.94, a 2.39% increase. The P/E TTM was at 48.28. The net inflow was 242.71M, with the majority from small orders.
Written by Kathy Tam
Deloitte reported the inflation rate in December this week, with Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive month of increases. This rise is primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices, which rose 0.1% year-on-year after three months of decline. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 2.7%, consistent with the previous four months. A notable divergence persists between goods and services inflation, with non-energy industrial goods rising only 0.5% while services inflation surged by 4%. This ongoing services inflation poses a concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), which has been cutting interest rates to address economic weaknesses despite the relatively stable bond yields indicating investor confidence in the ECB's approach. Inflation rates varied significantly across member countries, with Germany and Spain both at 2.8%, while Belgium faced the highest rate at 4.4%.
European shares rose nearly 1% on Thursday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.98% to 520.05 points, its highest level since mid-December, largely driven by a surge in luxury stocks following Richemont's strong earnings report. The luxury sector saw a notable boost, with Richemont shares soaring 16.3% after exceeding quarterly sales expectations, signaling robust demand during the holiday season. France’s benchmark index reached a near three-month high, outperforming other regional exchanges, as luxury firms collectively advanced 6.7%, marking their best performance in nearly four months. Major players like LVMH, Dior, Kering, and Hermes also recorded significant gains, reflecting optimism about the high-end market's resilience amid global economic challenges. Deutsche Bank highlighted that these results suggest premium luxury brands are likely to outperform, indicating that the current slowdown in luxury is more cyclical than structural and that growth in other regions can help mitigate weaknesses in China.
Zalando SE (ZAL) experienced a significant boost in its stock price, rising 8.6% after the company announced that it expects its profit for 2024 to exceed previous forecasts. Following this positive outlook, Goldman Sachs updated its price target for Zalando from €37.00 to €42.50, indicating a potential upside of approximately 35%. The anticipated adjusted EBIT for FY24 is projected to reach around €510 million, surpassing the company's own guidance of €440 million to €480 million. This strong performance can be attributed to robust customer growth driven by effective marketing strategies and improved product sell-through rates, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rising 4.5% to €15.3 billion and revenues increasing by 3.9% to €10.5 billion.
Written by Alec ANTONIOU
Closing off the third week of the new year, both the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component gained (0.18% and 0.6% respectively). Recent economic data showed that China’s economy grew 5.4% YOY in Q4 2024, exceeding expectation at 5%. Other data showed further promise, as industrial production rose 6.2% and retail sales grew 3.7% in December, outperforming forecasts. New home prices declined at a slower pace whilst unemployment rate sits at 5.1%, down 0.1% annually. Recent data does not suggest that Beijing will continue pushing further stimulus measures. Nonetheless, investors are optimistic about potential cuts in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks before the Spring Festival, as state media report potential action by China’s central bank.
New home prices stayed flat from December to November, marking the fourth month of slower declines in the housing market. This improvement comes following a consistent push from Beijing to revive the economy through considerable fiscal and monetary stimulus, helping push up the slumping housing sector. Retail sales grew 3.7% YOY, beating expectations of 3.5% as private spending rebounded. This is a strong indicator of consumption capacity, demonstrating that the economy retained much of its strength in the fourth quarter. Economic data showed fixed asset investment in 2024 was up 3.2% YOY. This is reflected through investment in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, expanding 4.4% and 9.2% respectively. High-tech industries saw similar growth with investment up 8% YOY, with higher auto, computer, and solar cell sales.
ZTE Corp (0763.HK) is up 13.47% this week as it announces partnership with Indosat to supply further rural 4G coverage across Indonesia. ZTE’s rapid growth is reflective of bolstered high-tech sales from China. Nanjing Panda Electronics (600775.SS) is down 21.08% over the past month. The company expects an attributable loss of 150-220 million yuan for 2024. Anticipated losses are mainly attributed to fierce competition within intelligent manufacturing, power supply, and communication businesses. A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the US.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
This week, the market experienced volatility but trended toward stability overall. The Sensex benchmark index and the NIFTY50 closed with declines of 0.98% and 0.23%, respectively. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid continued foreign capital outflows. However, the domestic equity market ended a four-day losing streak on Tuesday, buoyed by easing domestic inflation, lower crude oil prices fueling bargain buying, and positive global cues, closing in the green. The rally extended into Thursday, driven by growing optimism about a softening U.S. inflation outlook, which raised hopes for rate cuts. Both indices closed up 0.4% on the day. On Friday, disappointing performance in IT and banking stocks, combined with uncertainty over potential U.S. policy shifts ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration, led to an overall decline. India’s recent cooling inflation has paved the way for potential rate cuts. On Monday, the government reported a Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 5.22% year-on-year for December, down from November's 5.48% and below economists’ forecast of 5.45%. Economists anticipate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will initiate a rate-cut cycle at its February Monetary Policy Committee meeting, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. However, the timing of monetary easing remains uncertain due to the weakening Indian rupee (at a record low of 86.58 against the U.S. dollar), slowing economic growth (Q3 2024 marked the lowest in nearly two years), and heightened uncertainty driven by global bond yield fluctuations.
The market saw mixed performance across sectors, with the Nifty IT and Private Bank indices emerging as the worst performers, each declining by over 2%. The Banking Nifty and Financial Services indices followed, registering losses of over 1%. In contrast, the Nifty FMCG, Metals, OMC, and Realty indices closed higher, with gains of 1.56%. The Nifty IT index recorded the steepest decline, plunging 2.68%. This was primarily driven by a sharp drop in Infosys stock following the company’s Q3 earnings report. Infosys shares closed at ₹1,817.50 on Friday, down 5.8%, amid bleak growth prospects that prompted investors to cut their positions. Morgan Stanley highlighted concerns over the quality of earnings, noting that revenue growth was fueled by an increase in the "third-party projects" component within deal pipelines. Additionally, valuations for mid-cap IT firms continue to exceed those of larger players, raising questions about sustainability. The ongoing global economic slowdown further adds uncertainty for IT stocks.
Reliance Industries Ltd（NSE: RELIANCE): Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) posted a weekly gain of 5.35% (66 basis points), supported by strong Q3 earnings. The company reported a consolidated net profit of ₹18,540 crore for Q3 FY24, representing a 7.4% increase compared to ₹17,265 crore in the same period last year. Consolidated revenue grew by 6.7% year-on-year, rising from ₹22.5 lakh crore to ₹24 lakh crore. At the operational level, Reliance Industries recorded an EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of ₹43,789 crore for the quarter ended December 2024, an 8% increase year-on-year from ₹40,656 crore. The company's EBITDA margin improved by 20 basis points (bps) to 18.3% from 18.1% in the prior year, driven by higher refining margins and growth in digital services.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
This week, the U.S. stock market opened on a weak note, with all three major indices closing the week down by more than 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.88%, the S&P 500 fell 1.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.34%. Labor market data remained robust, with initial jobless claims for the week ending January 4 declining by 10,000 to 201,000—the lowest level in 11 months. In the energy sector, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 959,000 barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 6.33 million barrels, leading to weekly price increases of 3.59% and 3.69% for WTI and Brent crude, respectively. Despite positive labor and energy market developments, consumer confidence weakened. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 74 in November to 73.23 in December, below expectations of 73.8, reflecting lingering concerns over future inflation despite an easing in perceptions of current living costs. In addition, the unemployment rate in December decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, better than market forecasts. Non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, marking the largest gain in nine months, with retail contributing 43,000 new jobs. Strong labor market performance dampened investor expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut within the next six months.
Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index, only one ended the week in positive territory, with the financials, real estate, and technology sectors leading the declines. Insurance stocks experienced significant losses this week due to forecasts of wildfire damages in California reaching $20 billion. Mercury General Corporation (MCY) saw its stock price drop 24% this week, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) fell by 5.64%, and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) declined by 4.26%. However, it is anticipated that insurance companies may have brighter prospects in the long term after overcoming this short-term setback. The technology sector led the losses this week. Semiconductor stocks plummeted as the Biden administration prepared to impose a new round of restrictions on AI chip exports. Nvidia closed down 5.76%, AMD declined by 4.76%, and NXP Semiconductors ended the week 5.1% lower. Apple dropped 2.41%, likely due to concerns over 2025 shipment projections falling short of market expectations.
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) saw its stock rise by 28% to $11.82 after reporting first-quarter financial results that exceeded market expectations. IGM Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: IGMS) experienced a significant decline of 66%, with its stock falling to $2.1250 following the company's announcement to discontinue further development of Imvotamab and IGM-2644.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 fell nearly 1% on Friday, driven lower by astronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reinforced the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on future rate cuts. This, combined with inflation concerns, the ongoing UK debt market crisis, and uncertainty over President-elect Trump's potential tariff policies, weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Most sectors and bourses were in the red, with utilities and food & beverage stocks dropping 2.3%, while autos were the exception, rising 0.48%.
The banking sector was buoyed by UBS shares, which surged nearly 10% week on week to a 16-year high following a Wall Street Journal report that the bank would be fined hundreds of millions in a settlement with the US Justice Department. The case is related to Credit Suisse, which was investigated for violating a plea agreement involving assistance to US taxpayers in filing false income tax returns.
Marks and Spencer’s on Thursday said like-for-like food sales rose 8.9% in the 13 weeks to the end of December, while clothing, home and beauty added 1.9% over the same period. “This was another good Christmas for M&S,” chief executive Stuart Machin said in a statement. “Sales records were broken across the business, with Food recording its biggest day and Clothing, Home & Beauty online its biggest week, but we’re not complacent — as a growth business it’s our job to break records.” The external environment however would remain challenging, Machin warned, pointing to cost and economic headwinds, but also noted that there was much in the group’s control.
Written by Kevin XIA Yunchu
China's Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded on January 9, 2025, with policymakers emphasizing proactive policy support to bolster consumption and stabilize housing and stock markets. The conference highlighted the need for a higher fiscal deficit and moderately loose monetary policy to address economic challenges. Despite these measures, China's retail sales softened to 3.0% year-on-year growth in December, while industrial production rose by 5.4% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rose to -2.5% year-on-year, indicating a demand pick-up for industrial products. In Hong Kong SAR, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.83% in its final hour of trade on January 13, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index in mainland China lost 2.37% and ended at 3,933.18. The decline was attributed to Beijing's stimulus pledges falling short of investor expectations.
The technology sector in Hong Kong SAR saw significant movements, driven by the listing of several sizeable deals, including four of the ten largest IPOs in the past three years. These listings included Specialist Technology Companies under Chapter 18C, primarily engaged in Al and robotics. This influx of tech IPOs has reinforced Hong Kong's position as a hub for innovation and contributed to a 78% increase in funds raised compared to 2023.
In mainland China, BYD Company Ltd (SZ: 002594)., a leading electric vehicle manufacturer, experienced a notable surge in its stock price following reports of increased production targets and expansion plans. The company's shares rose by 7.5% over the week, reflecting investor optimism about its growth prospects. In Hong Kong SAR, Mao Geping (HK: 01318), a Chinese cosmetics firm, made a spectacular debut on the stock market. The company's shares surged by 70% on the first day of trading, reaching HK$53.05 at its peak. The IPO was highly popular, with retail investors oversubscribing the shares 918 times. This strong performance highlights the growing interest in premium beauty products and the company's successful market entry.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan's stock markets declined over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index dropping 1.8% and the TOPIX Index falling 2.5%. Speculation persisted about the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next interest rate hike. The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar due to uncertainty surrounding BoJ’s monetary policy normalization and the widening U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. Japan's Finance Minister issued a warning against speculative currency moves, signaling potential intervention. In fixed income, the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield rose to 1.19%, the highest since 2011, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The BoJ maintained a tightening bias, but recent comments suggest the likelihood of a January rate hike is low, with some investors predicting delays until March or April. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wage growth declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, falling 0.3% year-on-year. The BoJ remains focused on economic and price developments, along with wage growth, to determine future rate hikes.
Retail Sector: Seven & i Holdings <3382> increased by 0.12%. Fast Retailing <9983>, whose operating profit for the September-November 2024 period, announced the previous day, fell short of market expectations, causing its stock to plunge nearly 8% at one point. The sharp drop in Fast Retailing worsened investor sentiment, dragging the Nikkei 225 down by over 300 points alone.
Technology Sector: Advantest <6857> increased by 12.85%. NTT Data <9613> decreased by 0.76%. TDK <6762> decreased by 8.56%.
KKR has urged the board of Fuji Soft <9749> to take legal action against Bain Capital, accusing its rival of violating a non-disclosure agreement in their $4 billion bid for the Japanese software company. KKR's call for an injunction escalates the public battle between the two private equity firms, a rare occurrence in Japan. Bain launched a $4.3 billion counterbid in December, positioning itself as a "white knight" with the support of Fuji Soft's founder, despite the board repeatedly backing KKR's lower bid due to fears of a potential deadlock and concerns about Bain's higher bid timeline. KKR also accused Bain of misusing confidential information and misleading the market, while Bain argued it had destroyed all required data and would proceed with its offer based on public information. Fuji Soft's shares rose above Bain's offer price, leading analysts to speculate on the possibility of higher bids.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
This week, the Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn. The NIFTY 50 Index declined by 2.49%, and the SENSEX Index dropped by 2.2%. Investor confidence in the Indian market remained weak. The closing of global markets at lower levels this week set the stage for declines in major Asian markets. An increased expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate has strengthened the U.S. dollar and raised bond yields, adversely affecting global market performances. If the Fed decides to hold rates in January, the Reserve Bank of India may be more inclined to hold rates in February, which could further impact market performances. Amid ongoing uncertainties, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have divested over ₹8,500 crore from Indian equities in January. Persistent foreign capital outflows remain a key factor in the depressed Indian stock market. India's economy is projected to grow by 6.4% in the fiscal year ending in March 2025, marking the slowest growth since the COVID-impacted fiscal year of 2020/21 and a decline from the 8.2% growth of the previous year. This figure also falls short of the government's earlier forecast of 6.5%. The slowdown is primarily attributed to weaker growth in gross fixed capital formation and inventories, despite accelerated spending by the private sector (7.3% compared to 4%) and the government (4.1% compared to 2.5%). Additionally, exports grew at a faster rate (5.9% compared to 2.6%), while imports contracted (-1.3% compared to 10.9%). On the production side, manufacturing growth is expected to slow significantly (5.3% compared to 9.9%), while growth in other major GDP contributors such as trade and hotels (5.8% compared to 6.4%) and financial services and real estate (7.3% compared to 8.4%) also moderated, offset by a stronger performance in agriculture (3.8% compared to 1.4%).
Auto: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) reported that auto retail grew by 9.1% year-on-year in 2024 despite challenges such as extreme weather, elections, and uneven monsoons. However, the data for December was disappointing, as overall retail declined by 12.4%, with almost all segments showing degrowth. In December, two-wheeler retails were affected by low cash flow, poor sentiment, delayed harvest payments, and heightened competition from electric vehicles, while the passenger vehicle segment saw degrowth due to high post-festive inventory, aggressive discounting, and limited new launches, with many buyers deferring purchases until January.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (NSE: TCS): The company gained 5.6% on January 10, Friday, culminating in a net 3.35% gain for the week. The largest IT firm in India announced positive results for the October to December quarter on January 9, Thursday, reporting a 12% rise in net profit to ₹12,380 crore for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25, compared to ₹11,058 crore in the previous year.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
Over the past week, the three major indexes have shown fluctuations in their prices but all of them are eventually bullish. S&P 500 started at 5891.07 on 30/12/2025, which created a price gap with the close on 27/12/2025. It then fluctuated and hit the lowest of 5888.66 on 2/1/2025. It eventually rebounded and ended at 5942.47, which was a 1.26% increase. A similar trend was seen also for the NASDAQ Composite index, with a lowest of 19379.57 towards the end of the week and a surge back to 19621.68 at the time it closed, which was a 1.77% increase. Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached its highest price of 42782.76 and lowest of 42436.92, and eventually ends at 42732.13, a 0.8% increase.
Looking into several important economic events in the US, the Chicago PMI, measuring the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago, showed a price of 36.9. This was lower than both the forecast price of 42.7 and the previous price of 40.2, which indicated a bearish change. The actual Initial Jobless Claims was 211K, which was lower than both the previous (220K) and the forecast number (222K). The Crude Oil Inventories declined by 1.178M, which was fewer than both the previous (-4.237M) and the forecast value (-2.400M). This indicates a bearish sign for the price of crude oil.
The US consumer discretionary market has shown the highest price rise of 2.42% among all the sector indexes in the US. The strong gain might be partly caused by the interest rate cuts earlier since the market is highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors. It is forecasted that the gain in this market will remain huge given the economy is healthy.
In general, all the sectors in the US have shown a price rise in the previous week, with the highest rate of 2.42% in the consumer discretionary market and the lowest of 0.1% in the consumer staples sector.
Uber Technologies (UBER) has shown its constant bullish growing trend in the previous week. It opened at a price of 63.69 and has been growing until it reached the week’s peak of 65.22 and eventually closed with a 2.25% at 64.59. The P/E TTM was at 31.82. The net inflow was 108.92M, with most of the orders being small orders.
Written by Kathy Tam
This week, European sector developments highlighted both challenges and opportunities across key industries. In energy, the halt of Russian gas transit via Ukraine on January 1, 2025, pushed natural gas prices above €50/MWh, underscoring Europe's ongoing energy security concerns and accelerating its shift toward LNG imports and renewable energy investments. The automotive sector faced regulatory pressure as new EU CO2 standards took effect, requiring at least 20% of vehicles sold to be electric, while the Czech Republic's manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 in December, reflecting deep structural issues in the car industry. Meanwhile, Europe's real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with analysts projecting a 15% increase in investment activity for 2025, driven by demand for prime assets in cities like Madrid and Stockholm and a rebound in office leasing due to return-to-office policies.
The banking sector was buoyed by UBS shares, which surged nearly 10% week on week to a 16-year high following a Wall Street Journal report that the bank would be fined hundreds of millions in a settlement with the US Justice Department. The case is related to Credit Suisse, which was investigated for violating a plea agreement involving assistance to US taxpayers in filing false income tax returns.
AstraZeneca (AZN), the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical giant, is under investigation by Chinese regulators for alleged illegal drug imports, data breaches, and health insurance fraud, a situation that has already led to the detention of Leon Wang, AstraZeneca’s China President. These issues have raised concerns about its future in a market that contributes 13% of its revenue, with reports indicating declining prescriptions for its medicines as doctors distance themselves amidst the controversy. Compounding this, a U.S. lawsuit alleges AstraZeneca misled investors by understating its exposure to regulatory risks in China. Over the past six months, the stock has dropped 15%, though it showed slight stabilization this week, rising approximately 1.2% to close at £10,594 on January 3, 2025. This may due to the company's strong global performance, with analysts projecting robust earnings growth fueled by its innovative drug pipeline, including treatments for cancer, rare diseases, and obesity. Additionally, AstraZeneca’s upcoming launch of Breztri Aerosphere for COPD in India and its continued expansion in the U.S., supported by a $3.5 billion investment plan, signal confidence in its ability to diversify revenue streams and reduce dependency on the Chinese market.
Written by Kim Chui
Japan's markets were lower after the close on Monday, as losses in the Shipbuilding, Precision Instruments and Communication sectors led shares lower.. The Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.47%, closing at 39,307.05 on January 3, 2025, as technology and manufacturing sectors surged. Similarly, the broader TOPIX index dropped 1,02%, ending at 2,756.38. Export-driven industries benefited from the yen's depreciation against the U.S. dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 157.16 JPY/USD, making Japanese goods more competitive overseas.
Economic indicators showed mixed results. The December Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 49.0 to 49.6, signaling marginal expansion, while the Services PMI stood at 50.9, reflecting modest domestic demand. However, concerns about inflation persist, as Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th consecutive month. This has fueled speculation about the BOJ potentially adjusting its ultra-loose monetary policy, but Governor Ueda reiterated the need for continued stimulus to achieve sustainable growth.
Industrials Sector:
Industrial machinery company Ebara Corp. (TYO:6361) jumped 5.71%; engineering firm IHI Corp. (TYO:7013) declined by 5.48%.
Technology Sector:
Electrical equipment manufacturer Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd. (TYO:5801) increased by 5.40%.
Fujitsu General Ltd. (TYO:6705) is set to be acquired by Paloma Rheem Holdings in a deal valued at approximately ¥257 billion ($1.6 billion). The offer includes a 24% premium over Fujitsu General's closing price on January 6, 2025, with Paloma Rheem proposing to pay ¥2,808 per share. This acquisition aims to facilitate Fujitsu's strategic shift, allowing the company to concentrate on its core IT business by divesting its air-conditioner unit. The transaction is expected to be financed through bank borrowing, with a tender offer anticipated around July. This move follows previous negotiations with private equity firms that did not materialize, highlighting Fujitsu's intent to streamline its operations by shedding non-core assets.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
This week, the stock market saw mixed performance, but overall, it closed slightly higher. The Sensex benchmark index rose by 0.98%, and the NIFTY50 index increased by 0.67%. The decline leading up to the New Year was primarily driven by the automotive and banking sectors, with Tata Motors and the State Bank of India falling by 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively. On December 30th, the Sensex index closed down 0.6% at 78,248.13 points. The main downward pressure on Tuesday came from the technology sector, which reflected a delayed impact from the sharp fall in U.S. tech stocks. The mid-week low was recorded at 77,564.24 points. After the New Year, the Indian stock market performed well, driven by a rebound in automotive stocks and support from the financial sector. By Thursday, the market had approached the 80,000 mark near the close. However, this strong rally came to an abrupt halt on Friday due to a sell-off in the technology sector, primarily driven by cautious sentiment from foreign investors as they entered the New Year.
Summarizing the performance of the market this year, the Nifty 50 index ended the year with a gain of 8.8%, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth for the Indian stock market. Over the past fourteen years, the cumulative gain has reached an impressive 355%, leading among major global indices, highlighting the potential of India's stock market, largely supported by domestic institutional investors and policy continuity following the re-election of the ruling party. However, the main issue facing the market was the slowdown in corporate earnings and the outflow of foreign funds, which reduced the annual gain to around 8.5%, putting it at a disadvantage compared to global rankings. At the same time, the rupee hit multiple historical lows in December due to the rising U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve's slowdown in rate cuts may exacerbate the outflow of foreign capital from emerging markets like India. Additionally, India’s economic slowdown, growing trade deficit, and decelerating capital inflows have intensified its challenges. Looking ahead to the New Year, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and the policies proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will be the major factors influencing emerging markets in 2025.
Pharmaceutical Sector: Among all sectors, the pharmaceutical stocks have delivered the best performance this year, with a weekly gain of 1.11% and an impressive annual increase of 39%. This growth is attributed to steady sales growth in both the Indian domestic and U.S. markets, along with stable pricing in the U.S. pharmaceutical market. The Indian pharmaceutical industry has been on an upward trajectory in recent years, largely driven by government policy support and strong industry development efforts, with the aim of positioning India as the "pharmacy of the world." Although Indian companies reported lower-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, the Nifty Pharma index saw a 14.30% year-on-year revenue growth and a 23.59% year-on-year profit increase. Looking forward to 2025, the Indian pharmaceutical sector is full of promise and is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the "Trump 2.0" era. The ongoing political struggles between U.S. political parties are likely to suppress industry costs, preventing any major tariff wars. For the pharmaceutical industry, China's "Plus One" strategy may be pushed forward to diversify pharmaceutical manufacturing and supply chains. This shift presents incremental opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical companies, making it a significant positive factor for the sector.
Adani Group’s Exit from Wilmar International JV and its Impact on Adani Wilmar: On Monday afternoon, Adani Enterprises announced its decision to exit its consumer goods joint venture with Singapore’s Wilmar International, causing a significant 7.7% drop in Adani Wilmar's stock price due to a market-wide selloff. The group plans to raise $2 billion by selling its 44% stake in the joint venture with Wilmar International, and the proceeds will be directed towards its core infrastructure business. Although the group’s revenue, which exceeds ₹515 billion for FY 2024, primarily comes from the sale of edible oils through this joint venture, with a market share of 20%, this move appears justified. The Adani Group is facing intense scrutiny over bribery allegations, and raising funds in the medium to short term has become a critical focus, particularly in overseas markets. Moreover, the merged group is heavily indebted, with listed company liabilities exceeding ₹2.4 billion. Given these factors, the decision to exit the Wilmar JV appears to be a strategic move to reduce debt before exploring other avenues. By shedding its consumer business, the group aims to better allocate capital and focus on its core operations, promoting a more centralized and focused growth strategy. This decision reflects a more prudent approach to financial management amid ongoing challenges.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
The U.S. stock market remained stable this week, influenced by the Christmas holiday and a sell-off in tech stocks on Friday. The Dow rose 0.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.67%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.74%. However, the market experienced significant outflows, with investors withdrawing over $35 billion—marking the largest outflow since December 2022—following a record $62 billion inflow the previous week. After last week's 25bp Fed rate cut, expectations for further rate reductions next year have declined. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in January is now 91.4%, with an 8.6% chance of a 25bp cut. This has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 4.627%, its highest since May.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported a 1.1% decline in durable goods orders in November, well below the forecasted 0.4% drop. However, core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defence) rose 0.7%, the largest increase since July 2023. Consumer confidence also weakened, with the Conference Board's index falling from 112.8 to 104.7. Meanwhile, new home sales rose 5.9% MoM in November, recovering from a 14.8% drop in October but falling short of the expected 9.8% increase. The growth was likely driven by delayed transactions due to earlier hurricanes and a 14-year high in new home supply. Labor market data remained strong, with initial jobless claims falling by 1,000 to 219,000 in mid-December, below the expected 224,000. This marks the lowest level since the 213,000 recorded a month ago. In energy markets, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, following a 4.7 million-barrel drop the previous week. The tightened supply pushed crude oil and Brent prices up by 1.41% and 1.24%, respectively, for the week.
Quantum computing-related stocks surged, setting the stage for a robust year-end rebound in the emerging sector. Rigetti Computing Inc. soared by 86%, while SEALSQ Corp skyrocketed over 230.18%. Meanwhile, the electric vehicle sector continued its upward trend, with Toyota Motor Corp. rising 11.98% and Li Auto Inc. climbing 8.19%. However, heavy sell-offs in major tech companies on Friday weighed on Wall Street. Tesla dropped 4.9%, NVIDIA fell 2%, and Broadcom declined 3.05%. Thin holiday trading amplified market volatility, leading the Nasdaq 100 to fall 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 333 points on that day
Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) experienced a significant stock increase of 20.39% this week, following the announcement of formal merger talks with Nissan Motor Co. This potential merger aims to create the world's third-largest automaker, enhancing competitiveness in the evolving electric vehicle market.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
European stocks recorded their first weekly gain in three weeks, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising by 0.7% as trading resumed after Christmas. This increase was notable despite thin trading volumes during the holiday period, with strong performances observed in the automotive, banking, and financial sectors, while retailers lagged behind. The index has encountered challenges throughout the fourth quarter, experiencing an overall 3% decline primarily due to concerns surrounding regional political uncertainties and potential US tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. France's CAC 40 underperformed with a decline of approximately 2.5% for the year, while Germany's DAX led gains with an increase of over 15%, excluding dividends. In the banking sector, M&A activity surged in 2024, with deals surpassing $41.5 billion, marking the busiest year for European banks since 2020. This heightened deal-making activity has contributed to a total return of 32% for bank stocks in 2024, reflecting robust investor confidence.
The banking sector has emerged as a prominent player in European M&A activities, representing 17% of total deals this year. This resurgence can be attributed to depressed valuations across industries, with European bank shares trading at a historic 40% discount compared to their US counterparts. Motivated by the need to achieve scale, reduce costs, and prepare for a potential decline in interest rates, the sector is actively pursuing growth. In contrast, the automotive sector is encountering challenges due to proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump, impacting major manufacturers such as V olkswagen and BMW, who are already grappling with sluggish demand in China. Additionally, the telecom sector is experiencing increased deal-making activity, aided by regulatory changes that are facilitating mergers and acquisitions.
Delivery Hero SE witnessed a significant 9% drop in its stock value after Taiwan's Fair Trade Commission blocked Uber Technologies Inc.'s planned $950 million acquisition of its Foodpanda business on antitrust grounds. This decision had a notable impact on Delivery Hero, which had intended to utilize the sale proceeds to bolster its financial position amidst ongoing restructuring efforts prompted by activist investor pressures. In contrast, Banca Monte Dei Paschi di Siena SpA has seen its stock price more than double following Italy's initiatives to privatize the bank and establish a new national banking leader, signifying a remarkable turnaround after years of decline for the world's oldest financial institution. Unicredit SpA is also in the spotlight for acquiring a stake in Commerzbank AG and pursuing additional opportunities for domestic consolidation.
Written by David LU Zhiyuan
Chinese equities showed mixed performance but relatively small fluctuations in the final week of 2024, with the SSE Composite Index rising 1.60%, while the SZSE Component Index declined slightly by 0.33%. The HSI gained 1.90%, reflecting positive sentiment in the Hong Kong market. Investors remained cautious amid year-end trading, balancing optimism over domestic economic recovery with concerns about external uncertainties. Gains in the SSE were supported by stronger-than-expected retail and industrial data, while declines in the SZSE were driven by profit-taking in growth stocks. The Chinese government is expected to implement more supportive measures in 2025 to stabilize growth, as analysts suggest current policies may need to adapt to global economic challenges.
New energy vehicle (EV) stocks showed resilience, supported by favorable policies aimed at boosting industry growth. Leading EV makers rose modestly, with BYD (1211.HK) gaining over 3%. On the policy front, recent announcements highlighted increased subsidies for EV purchases in rural areas and expanded support for charging infrastructure, aiming to accelerate EV adoption and promote green consumption. Analysts believe these measures, coupled with long-term goals for carbon neutrality, will strengthen the EV supply chain and drive sustainable growth. The focus on expanding charging networks and reducing ownership costs is expected to solidify consumer confidence and enhance the competitiveness of domestic EV manufacturers.
Zhongbai Group (SHE:000759) surged 54.42% last week, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the A-share market. The rally was driven by market speculation surrounding potential reforms in the retail sector and expectations of policy support for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Analysts suggest the stock's sharp rise may also be linked to improved consumer sentiment and increased activity in the domestic retail market but caution against overheating due to speculative trading. Shanghai Phoenix (SHA:600679) dropped 30.51% last week, marking a significant decline in its stock price. The sharp decline may be attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, as well as concerns over the company's growth prospects in a highly competitive e-bike market. Analysts suggest that the drop reflects market caution toward speculative trading, highlighting the need for sustained business performance to restore investor confidence.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan's stock markets rose significantly over the week, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 4.08% and the TOPIX Index up 3.69%, supported by a weaker yen that bolstered export-heavy industries. The yen declined to JPY 157 against the U.S. dollar, and 10-year Japanese government bond yields rose to a five-week high of 1.1%. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested potential interest rate hikes if economic conditions improve, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensure inflation stays near the 2% target while keeping policy accommodative. Tokyo's December inflation rose above expectations, with the CPI up 3% year-on-year and core CPI rising 2.4%, indicating potential national trends. Economic data for November showed mixed results: industrial production fell 2.3% but outperformed expectations, retail sales rose 1.8%, and unemployment remained steady at 2.5%.
TSMC has begun mass production at its new fab in Kumamoto, Japan, marking a milestone in advanced chip manufacturing in the country. Operated by Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM), the plant uses 40nm, 28nm, 22nm, 16nm, and 12nm-class process technologies, with a focus on automotive and consumer electronics applications. This facility represents the first production of FinFET logic chips in Japan and can handle up to 55,000 wafer starts per month. Supported by a $3 billion subsidy from the Japanese government, the $8.27 billion investment involves TSMC (holding an 86.5% stake), Sony, Denso, and Toyota. Plans for a second fab at the site are set for 2025, targeting 6nm and 7nm-class nodes, with operations expected by 2027. Combined, the two fabs aim for a capacity of over 100,000 wafers per month, with total investments reaching $20 billion. TSMC's expansion in Japan follows its moves into the U.S. and Germany. Additional plans for a third fab in Kumamoto depend on the success of the first two, as well as solutions for infrastructure and environmental challenges.
Honda and Nissan plan to merge to counter competition from China's growing electric vehicle (EV) industry, aiming to solidify their market position by 2030. The merger would include Mitsubishi, enabling resource sharing among the three companies to compete with EV leaders like Tesla and BYD. The partnership aims to combat China's dominance in EV production, which benefits from lower costs and government subsidies. Nissan and Honda’s combined sales exceed $191 billion, and their leaders emphasize the urgency of building competitive capabilities. However, the merger's success depends on Nissan's financial recovery. Nissan has faced declining sales and reputational challenges, including fallout from the arrest of former CEO Carlos Ghosn. Political scrutiny in Japan and potential job cuts are anticipated, as is the likely end of Nissan's alliance with Renault. The companies have already deepened their cooperation in EV technologies, focusing on batteries and related advancements.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
Following the crash last week, the Indian stock market was stagnant in the Christmas week. The Sensex benchmark rose 0.24% as the NIFTY 50 rose 0.4%, both ended nearly flat on a subdued note. This reflects investors’ cautious sentiments as the year wraps up. The Indian market lacked major triggers this week while the Indian rupee kept falling to historical lows against the dollar. The rupee ended at a fresh record low of 85.54 per dollar on December 27, Friday, due to a strong greenback amid surging month-end demand from banks and importers. Looking at the global market, investors are prudently observing the US Republican Party administration starting next month.
The Nifty Pharma Index rose 1.85%. The outperformance of the Pharma Index could be explained from a technical perspective. On December 26, Thursday, the 9-day moving average broke the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. A symmetrical triangle pattern established last Friday also broke out at the same time, stimulating a 2% rise within 24 hours. The Nifty Auto Index rose 1.7%. A possible explanation is the official commencement of the merger talk between Japanese auto giants Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi on December 23, Monday. The Indian auto market from now on pays more attention to how Indian car companies, factories, and supply chains can capitalise on such synergies.
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (NSE: HAL): Hindustan Aeronautics, one of the largest Indian defence stocks, rose 1.33% in the week. Analysts are confident in the stock despite a 20% downfall in 6 months. On December 24, Tuesday, Phillip Securities initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a price target of INR 5,500. On December 27, Friday, Antique Stock Broking selected the stock as one of its top picks in the defence sector. Hindustan is credited based on its extensive experience and evolving capabilities in the aerospace and defence sectors, which fuels its robust earnings trajectory in 2025. Favourable policies also provide a strong growth outlook for Hindustan. To enhance operational readiness, the Indian Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) proposals worth Rs 4.4 trillion in 2024, a 29% Y oY increase over 2023’s Rs 3.5 trillion. Notably, 94% of these approvals will benefit domestic companies, including Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) like Hindustan.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
In the past week, the three major indexes have performed relatively stable in the first few days and plummeted on 19/12. Which might be a consequence of the scaling back of the forecast interest rate announced by the Fed. S&P 500 showed a bearish trend and dropped significantly on 19/12, causing it to close at 5930.84, despite a rise on 20/12. NASDAQ Composite Index was quite stable in the first few days. On 19/12, however, it dropped significantly and hit the week’s low of 19168.38 at the start of 20/12. It closed at 19572.60. A similar trend is also seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which ended at 42840.26. Looking into several important data in the US, Crude Oil Inventories declined by 0.934M, which was higher than both the previous (-1.425M) and the forecast value (-1.600M). The Fed Interest Rate Decision was at 4.50%, which matched its forecast and was lower than the previous rate of 4.75%. The actual Initial Jobless Claims was 220K, which was lower than both the previous (242K) and the forecast number (229K).
The US real estate market has shown the highest rise of 1.82% in price in the previous week. This is likely to be a result of the loosened interest rate, which reduces the mortgage rates and makes real estates more affordable. In general, all the sectors in the US have shown a price rise in the previous week, with the highest rate of 1.82% in the real estate market and the lowest of 0.14% in the consumer discretionary sector.
Meta Platforms Inc. (Meta) has shown continuous decline and closed at 585.25 in the previous week, which has been the week’s lowest and lower than the previous close of 595.570. The P/E TTM was at 27.62. The net was 917.33M, with the majority from medium orders.
Written by Kathy Tam
European stock markets faced downward pressure, with the Euro STOXX 600 index declining by 0.6%, reflecting ongoing concerns about global monetary policies and fluctuations in energy markets. The German DAX fell by 0.43% to 19,884.75, while France's CAC 40 dropped by 0.27% to 7,274.48, indicating a cautious investor sentiment amid expectations of further interest rate adjustments from central banks. The UK’s FTSE 100 also saw a slight decrease of 0.26%, closing at 8,084.61. These declines are attributed to investors' anxieties regarding the economic outlook, particularly as the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently cut interest rates for the fourth time this year, aiming to address inflation projected to average around 2.4% in 2024. Despite these challenges, some indices like Spain's IBEX 35 managed a modest gain of 0.24%, highlighting a mixed performance across the region as market participants remain sensitive to geopolitical developments.
The European automotive sector is under significant stress due to President-elect Donald Trump's proposed blanket tariffs on imports, which could severely affect major German manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. These companies are already facing challenges from sluggish demand in China and have issued profit warnings as a result. Germany’s auto industry exported approximately €23 billion ($24.2 billion) in passenger cars to the U.S. last year, highlighting its importance to the economy. Analysts emphasize that the automotive sector is intricately linked to related industries like steel and chemicals, making its stability crucial for overall manufacturing in Germany. Additionally, with Mercedes-Benz employing over 11,000 people in the U.S. and BMW operating 30 locations across multiple states, the proposed tariffs raise concerns about potential job losses and broader economic implications for Europe.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is currently facing a securities fraud lawsuit following a 16% drop in its stock price after the company reported disappointing earnings on October 15, 2024. The lawsuit alleges that ASML misled investors regarding the impact of new Dutch export controls on semiconductor technology, claiming it would not adversely affect its financial outlook. Following the earnings report, which revealed lower-than-expected sales and net income, ASML's stock fell significantly, prompting investors to seek legal recourse. As of December 18, 2024, ASML's stock is trading at approximately $735.19, reflecting a slight decline of about 2.14% for the day. The stock has shown volatility in recent months, with a year-to-date performance of approximately -2.05%. Analysts have projected that ASML's total net sales for 2024 will be around €28 billion, with expectations for growth to between €30 billion and €35 billion in 2025. Despite the ongoing legal challenges and market fluctuations, ASML remains a critical player in the semiconductor industry, particularly due to its advanced lithography equipment essential for chip manufacturing.
Written by Kim Chui
This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.1%, citing concerns over global economic volatility and domestic inflation trends. The Nikkei 225 index declined by 1.2%, closing at 31,657.42, primarily due to uncertainty in global markets and a net outflow of ¥24 billion from Japanese equities. Japan's annual core inflation rate remained elevated at 3.1% in November, marking the 15th consecutive month above the BoJ's target of 2%.
The Nikkei Technology Index fell by 1.7%, driven by declining demand for high-end chips. Nvidia's stock dropped by 3.2%, and AMD's declined by 2.8%, reflecting weaker sales in AI and gaming. Meanwhile, the Japan Automotive Index rose by 2.3%, benefiting from strong performance by exporters amid a weak yen.
SoftBank Group Corp. (9984.T) has shown a positive performance this week, with a weekly increase of 3.4%, closing at ¥5,450. Key drivers for this surge include the Vision Fund's return to profitability for the first time in 18 months, posting a ¥150 billion profit for the quarter. Additionally, the IPO of chip-design company Arm Holdings earlier this year continues to bolster investor sentiment, with Arm's stock rising by 4% during the week due to strong earnings. SoftBank also announced plans to accelerate AI-related investments in 2024, signaling its intent to capitalize on the AI boom. However, risks remain regarding SoftBank's exposure to volatile tech startups, particularly in China, where regulatory pressures persist.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
The key trend for the Indian stock market this week was a notable crash. The Sensex benchmark closed the week with a 4.98% loss, plunging more than 4,000 points. The NIFTY 50 also dropped by 4.68%, falling below the 200-day exponential moving average of approximately 23,700 points. The volatile market sentiment was largely driven by adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The effects became apparent starting Tuesday and peaked on Thursday after the Fed revised its rate cut expectations. This led to a sharp decline of 1.04% on that day alone. Initially, markets anticipated three to four rate cuts in 2025; however, the Fed’s revision clarified that only two cuts are likely. The hawkish stance strengthened the U.S. dollar and bond yields, which, in turn, accelerated foreign capital outflows from the Indian market. Foreign Institutional Investors sold over ₹12,000 crore worth of stocks in the past four trading days. Compared to the beginning of the month, this FII selling pressure has significantly impacted large-cap stocks, particularly in the financial, banking, and IT sectors. The weak performance of major sectors has contributed to the overall market weakness, and the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has only deepened investor concerns. Domestic economic growth has slowed for three consecutive quarters, and the weakening ruble has led to a record-high trade deficit in November. On a more positive note, there is potential for recovery in the third quarter, driven by year-on-year growth in heavily impacted sectors such as oil and gas, along with the seasonal boost from the holiday period. Domestic corporate earnings data for Q3 will also be closely monitored. However, persistent inflation and delayed interest rate cuts continue to fuel skepticism, making it difficult for investor confidence to fully recover.
After a relatively weak first half in FY 2025, India's hospitality sector has made a strong recovery, fueled by a surge in demand driven by the wedding season and the growth of Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) activities. The sector is expected to see a 10-12% year-on-year growth in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), driven by an 8-10% increase in Average Room Rate (ARR). This positive momentum is expected to continue into December, driven by corporate gatherings, cultural events, and leisure tourism. However, demand typically tends to taper off towards the end of the year, which remains an important metric for monitoring sector performance. One key sector player is Indian Hotels Company Ltd (NSE: INDHOTEL), which is expected to witness an 8% upside . The company has experienced significant growth since its transformation between 2017 and 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% in its new businesses. The company’s healthy portfolio expansion and strong revenue growth are expected to further boost its EBITDA margin. For the period from FY 2024 to FY 2027, the CAGR for revenue, EBITDA, and PAT is forecasted to be 18%, 24%, and 26%, respectively. With the upcoming New Year holidays, the sector is poised to maintain favorable supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential further growth in the short term.
Siemens Ltd (NSE: SIEMENS): Siemens shares fell 10% to a one-month low of Rs 6,868 a share in Friday's trade, the biggest intraday drop since early June. This followed the company's September quarter earnings call, where the division's margins declined during the quarter due to pricing pressures and unfavourable product mix. Siemens India's digital industrial business is currently facing challenges due to ongoing semiconductor shortages and de-stocking by some customers. However, the management said indicated that the business is expected to recover in the coming quarters once the de-stocking process is completed. During the quarter, the company secured new orders worth Rs 61.64 crore (14% growth in the new financial year) with strong demand across all business segments.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
This week, U.S. equity markets exhibited mixed performance, reflecting underlying market uncertainties. The S&P 500 declined by 0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.82%, while the NASDAQ advanced by 0.34%, and the Russell 2000 contracted by 2.58%. The U.S. labor market demonstrated notable softness this week, as initial unemployment claims increased to 242,000, exceeding the projected 220,000 and marking the highest level observed in two months. And the US Dollar Index increased by approximately 1%, driven by rate cut policies implemented in several countries, including Canada and Switzerland, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar. According to the latest report, the November CPI stood at 2.7%, largely in line with expectations, while the PPI reached 3% compared to the forecast of 2.6%. These figures further support the case for rate cuts, with traders raising the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to 99%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.
This week, tech stocks performed strongly, with the seven trillion-dollar tech companies adding roughly $416 billion in market cap on Wednesday. The tech megacaps lifted the NASDAQ past 20,000 for the first time. Amazon, Apple, and Meta have all been regularly reaching new highs. Since Trump’s victory, the market has been on the rise, as people believe the new administration will ease market regulations. On Tuesday, Trump named Andrew Ferguson, known for his support of innovation, as the next chair of the Federal Trade Commission, replacing Lina Khan, which further boosted market sentiment. At the same time, the increasing possibility of interest rate cuts could lead to a rise in large tech stocks.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG:NASDAQ): Alphabet unveiled its latest quantum computing chip on Monday, described as a “breakthrough” and “an important step in our journey to build a useful quantum computer with practical applications.” This announcement led to an 11% surge in the company’s stock price on Tuesday and Wednesday, surpassing its previous record of 191.18$. Broadcom Inc.(A VGO:NASDAQ): Broadcom released its fourth-quarter earnings report on Thursday, showing a strong 51% year-over-year growth. The company stated that its AI revenue increased by 200% this year and that it is working with major cloud clients to develop customized AI chips. As a result, Broadcom's stock surged over 21% to $220 on Friday morning, with its market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. NVIDIA Corp(NVDA:NASDAQ): Nvidia's stock declined by 2.6% on Monday, primarily due to allegations of potential violations of China's antimonopoly law, with the State Administration for Market Regulation conducting an investigation into Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox. Although the stock experienced a rebound afterward, it ultimately closed the week down by 2.25% relative to the previous week.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
The economic landscape in Europe remains clouded by political instability and sluggish growth, particularly in major economies like France and Germany. These factors have contributed to one of the worst annual performances for European stocks compared to the S&P 500, which has surged by 27% this year, driven by strong demand for large-cap stocks and advancements in artificial intelligence. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also adopted a dovish stance, cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy in anticipation of potential disruptions from Donald Trump's return to office.
Despite the overall pessimism, some strategists maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for specific sectors. Citigroup and Deutsche Bank are among the most bullish, projecting gains of 10% and 13%, respectively, for the Stoxx 600. This optimism is based on expectations of solid corporate earnings growth, which is projected at 8% for Europe in 2025. However, concerns persist regarding the sustainability of this growth amid a projected eurozone GDP growth of only 1.1%.
Individual companies within the European market show varied performance expectations. While Deutsche Bank AG is currently trading at €17.03 with a slight increase of 0.66%, analysts caution that broader market conditions could lead to declines for weaker firms. UBS Group AG and TFS Derivatives have issued bearish forecasts for the Stoxx 600, predicting a drop to around 470 points due to anticipated declines in sales and margins.
Written by Kevin XIA Yunchu
China's Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded on December 12, 2024, with policymakers emphasizing proactive policy support to bolster consumption and stabilize housing and stock markets. The conference highlighted the need for a higher fiscal deficit and moderately loose monetary policy to address economic challenges. Despite these measures, China's retail sales softened to 3.0% year-on-year growth in November, while industrial production rose by 5.4% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rose to -2.5% year-on-year, indicating a demand pick-up for industrial products.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.83% in its final hour of trade on December 13, 2024, while the CSI 300 Index in mainland China lost 2.37% and ended at 3,933.18. The decline was attributed to Beijing's stimulus pledges falling short of investor expectations.
The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant movements, driven by the listing of several sizeable deals, including four of the ten largest IPOs in the past three years. These listings included Specialist Technology Companies under Chapter 18C, primarily engaged in Al and robotics. This influx of tech IPOs has reinforced Hong Kong's position as a hub for innovation and contributed to a 78% increase in funds raised compared to 2023.
In mainland China, BYD Company Ltd., a leading electric vehicle manufacturer, experienced a notable surge in its stock price following reports of increased production targets and expansion plans. The company's shares rose by 7.5% over the week, reflecting investor optimism about its growth prospects.
In Hong Kong SAR, Mao Geping, a Chinese cosmetics firm, made a spectacular debut on the stock market. The company's shares surged by 70% on the first day of trading, reaching HK$53.05 at its peak. The IPO was highly popular, with retail investors oversubscribing the shares 918 times. This strong performance highlights the growing interest in premium beauty products and the company's successful market entry.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japan's stock markets posted modest gains over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.97% and the TOPIX Index gaining 0.71%. Market sentiment was bolstered by China’s announcement of proactive fiscal measures and moderately looser monetary policy.
Domestically, speculation increased that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay an interest rate hike at its December 18–19 meeting, causing the yen to weaken to the mid-JPY 153 range against the USD, compared to the previous week’s 150. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds declined to around 1.04% from 1.06%.
Investor sentiment now leans toward the BoJ implementing a 25-basis-point rate hike at its January meeting instead of December. This shift is likely due to the additional economic data the BoJ would receive by waiting, including two more inflation prints, the quarterly economic report, and feedback from its regional manager meeting. The BoJ has emphasized that any rate hike will depend on meeting its projections for economic growth, inflation, and wage increases.
Japan's final GDP data revealed 0.3% quarterly growth in Q3, surpassing the 0.2% consensus estimate. Additionally, the BoJ’s Tankan survey showed improved sentiment among large manufacturers in Q4, with optimism about business conditions outweighing pessimism.
The US Treasury has warned that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (Cfius) cannot agree on mitigating security concerns over Japan’s proposed $15 billion acquisition of US Steel, likely leading President Biden to block the deal. While some US agencies see no risks, opposition led by the trade representative persists, citing political motives. This dispute strains US-Japan relations, with Japan criticizing Washington for labeling its steel industry a security risk while seeking cooperation against China. Critics argue this politicizes Cfius and harms the US-Japan alliance.
Socionext Inc. (6526.T) With the growth of generative AI, the rise of AI ASICs is drawing attention as a potential alternative to NVIDIA ’s GPUs. Morgan Stanley’s recent report predicts the AI ASIC market will grow from $12 billion in 2024 to $30 billion by 2027, driven by cost and performance advantages. While NVIDIA (NVDA.US) remains dominant in training large language models, Socionext Inc. (6526.T) is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding adoption of AI ASICs. Morgan Stanley highlights that GPUs and ASICs are likely to coexist, serving different needs in the AI ecosystem.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low of 84.88 against the dollar on December 12, Thursday. While the Indian macro environment stays strong, outflow pressures persist due to the optimistic sentiments towards the US. The dollar/rupee non-deliverable forward (NDF) rates rose during the week, creating an arbitrage opportunity between the offshore NDF market and the onshore market. To exploit the arbitrage, banks have been buying dollars in the near-term onshore forward market. This activity has pushed the 1-month dollar/rupee forward premium to spike above 2.5%, a level that rarely exceeds the 1-year yield. This has further pressurized the rupee and fueled the historical low.
Market rebounded before market closing on Friday, potentially due to a positive CPI release on December 12, Thursday. Y oY retail inflation eased to 5.48% in November, down from 6.21% in October. This marks the first drop since July 2024. This cooling inflation has raised expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in the next monetary policy meeting. Despite the stock market recovery, the market breadth remained weak, with more stocks declining (2,173) than advancing (1,818).
The Nifty Auto Index fell by 0.44% during the week. On December 9, Monday, data from Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of India (FADA) revealed that passenger vehicle (PV) sales fell sharply by 33% MoM and 14% Y oY in November 2024. While November was initially expected to build on its prior momentum, particularly due to the marriage season, dealer feedback suggests that this segment underperformed overall expectations. The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector also seems to slow down. The Nifty FMCG Index bottomed out at 55,442.60 on Friday, December 13, hitting a six-month low after falling 16% since late September. This decline reflects tepid sales reported by FMCG companies. Executives from leading FMCG companies attribute the slowdown in urban areas to multiple factors such as rising urban real estate costs, food inflation, and slower wage growth, which fell to 7.7% Y oY in Q3 from 14.2% a year ago. These challenges strained middle-class spending power.
Bharti Airtel Ltd (NSE: BHARTIARTL): On December 13, Friday, Bharti Airtel’s shares surged by 4.4% after Jefferies selected it as one of its top picks for 2025, citing the company’s strong earnings growth driven by recent tariff hikes in the telecom sector. The stock grew 17.8% in 6 months and 66% YTD, significantly outperforming the 5.1% and 13.9% rise of the NIFTY 50 Index during the same periods. From a technical perspective, the stock has broken out of a falling trendline, with Friday’s closing near the day’s high signaling a continuation of the uptrend. The major EMAs are trending upward, supporting the price action. Additionally, the RSI stands at 63, further confirming bullish momentum.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
In the past week, the three major indexes have shown different trends of movements. S&P 500 was at 6090.28 with a growth of 0.25%. NASDAQ Composite Index has shown a growing trend closing at its peak of 19859.77, a 0.81% growth. Dow Jones Industrial Average has first shown growth but declined later, ending at 44642.52, a drop of 0.6%. Looking into several important data in the US, Crude Oil Inventories declined by 5.073M, which was more severe than both the previous (-1.844M) and the forecast value (-1.600M). US 10-Year Note Auction was 4.347%, which was higher than the previous 4.066%. The actual Initial Jobless Claims was 224K, which was higher than both the previous (215K) and the forecast number (215K).
The US job market has shown signals of recovery after hurricanes and strikes in November, with the most significant employment gains of 54,000 in the healthcare sector.
The consumer discretionary sector in the US has shown 2.39% increase in price, which has been the highest price increase throughout the sectors identified.
Tesla (TSLA) has shown continuous growth in stock prices after Trump’s election, hitting the 52 weeks high of 389.490 in the previous week and closed at 389.220, a 5.34% increase. The P/E TTM was at 106.64. The net inflow was 1373.09, with the majority from small orders.
Written by Kathy Tam
European markets broadly closed higher, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ending the day up 0.54%. Key indexes showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX gaining 0.13%, while the UK's FTSE 100 declined by 0.49%. The French CAC 40 had a volatile session, closing slightly up by 0.02%, despite political turmoil surrounding a contested budget and potential no-confidence votes. Economic data indicated a deterioration in manufacturing activity across the eurozone and the UK, while the eurozone unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3%. Analysts expressed concerns about rising U.S. inflation and potential impacts on global growth, with expectations of looser monetary policy in Europe amid economic challenges.
Britain is projected to reach "peak petrol" in 2024, signaling a major shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), according to a report by Auto Trader. The number of gasoline-powered cars is expected to decline from 18.7 million in 2024 to 11.1 million by 2034, while EVs on the roads are projected to rise from 1.25 million to 13.7 million. The share of EVs in the new car market is anticipated to increase from 18% this year to 23% by 2025, though this is below the UK government's target of 28%. The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires at least 22% of new cars sold to be zero-emission, increasing to 28% next year, and eventually to 100% by 2035.
Despite the positive outlook, industry leaders warn that high EV costs and regulatory pressures could jeopardize business viability and jobs. In response, the UK government plans consultations to support the industry, including a £2 billion investment for domestic manufacturing and over £300 million to encourage EV adoption.
(SHEL) British oil and gas supermajor Shell has announced a merger of its UK continental shelf (UKCS) upstream assets with those of Norwegian peer Equinor, forming a 50/50 joint venture set to begin by late 2025. This merger will create the UK's largest oil producer, with pro forma production expected to reach 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Kboed) in 2025 and rise to 220,000 Kboed by 2030 as the Rosebank and Jackdaw projects come online. The joint venture will include all offshore upstream assets and exploration licenses from both companies, totaling interests in 12 fields. Despite the North Sea's maturity, the new entity has significant growth potential with the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields contributing notably to production.
The UKCS has seen a decline in investment, with upstream capital dropping from over £16 billion in 2014 to around £5.5 billion in 2019. Major players like Chevron and Exxon have exited the region, contributing to over $10 billion in divestments since 2017. This merger is expected to positively affect Shell’s stock, with analysts maintaining a price target of $80 per NYSE-ADR, viewing it as a strategic move to strengthen Shell's market position in a challenging environment. However, risks from fluctuating oil prices and potential exploration setbacks remain.
Written by Alec ANTONIOU
Following anticipation of fresh stimulus measures, Chinese stocks rose: SSE Composite jumped 1.05% to close at 3,404 while SHE Component rallied 1.47% on Friday. Investors are optimistic about China’s leadership announcing additional economic support measures at next week’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), scheduled for 11 December. Expected on the agenda are additional Chinese measures to help target economic risks posed by the incoming Trump administration, amidst escalating trade tensions with the US. Begin December, Beijing imposed a ban on export of critical minerals with military applications to the US, an act of retaliation against the White House’s recent tariffs on China’s chip industry. High-growth technology, new energy, and financial stocks led the rally.
China’s factory activity grew for the second consecutive month, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 50.3 from 50.1 in October, outperforming expectations. Key indicators of quantitative easing (RRR, LPR, MLF) remain unchanged since October.
In the housing market, the value of new home sales by China’s top 100 developers fell 6.9% this November YTD. This continued decline in new home prices demonstrates the continuing adversity faced by China’s property sector, as investors expect Beijing to roll out further measures to push a sustained recovery in the housing sector.
China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to a multi-decade low of 1.96% on Monday, the lowest in 22 years. Despite the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) remaining unchanged, the bond yield decline is driven by expectations of economic stimulus from the CEWC, including a possible reduction in RRR for commercial lenders.
Chinese car manufacturers BYD, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi surpassed annual delivery targets a month ahead of the expected date. Among a boom in Chinese car sales, American carmaker Tesla cut prices for its Model Y by 10,000 yuan in an aim to stay competitive in the intensifying market price war.
NIO Inc. (9866.HK) is down 13.60% over the past month as the carmaker struggled to keep up with outperforming market sales trends, expecting to fall short of the annual sales target.
HSBC HOLDINGS (0005.HK) traded at 74.55 at market close on Friday, gaining 3.04% over past four weeks. HSBC HK app introduced its ‘open banking’ feature, allowing users to check their account information for Bank of China Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank.
Meituan (3690.HK) increased 2.01% since previous trading session, as it announced strong profits with a 22.4% rise in Q3 revenue, beating a slowing Chinese consumption market.
Written by Kim Chui
The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.1%, as the Nikkei 225 index surged by 3.5% over the past week. This rebound was primarily driven by increased foreign institutional investor activity, with net inflows of approximately ¥2 trillion in the first week of December after a period of significant sell-offs.
Notably, Thursday’s inflow accounted for 60% of this total (¥1.2 trillion), driving a 2% intraday gain, peaking at 33,000 points. This market reversal can be interpreted as a revaluation of the market's strong fundamentals and as a speculative opportunity following the previous downturn. Japan’s market continues to attract capital, bolstered by its growth potential and profitability.
The rise in liquidity and stable interest rates have created a positive market atmosphere in the short term, stabilizing market sentiment and making Japan an appealing destination for medium- to long-term investments. Moreover, global stock market risk aversion and economic policies are worth closely monitoring, particularly the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut announcement in this month’s meeting, as such policy shifts could have significant implications for global capital flows and the domestic stock market.
Technology Sector: The technology sector has been experiencing a significant rally, driven by the global demand for high-end chips used in AI applications. Major chipmakers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have seen substantial gains. The Nikkei 225 index, heavily influenced by tech stocks, reached a fresh 34-year high.
Nissan Motor Co. (7201.T): Nissan's stock has been under pressure as the company faces uncertainty about its future direction under President Makoto Uchida, who has been in office for five years. The company's performance has been lackluster, and investors are concerned about its long-term strategy. Over the past week, Nissan's stock has seen a slight increase of 2.26%. Toyota Motor Corporation (7203.T): Toyota has been performing well, benefiting from the weak yen and strong global demand for its vehicles. The company's stock has seen a steady rise, and it continues to attract investor interest due to its solid financial performance and growth prospects. Toyota's stock has increased by 2.97% over the past week.
Toyota Motor Corporation (7203.T): Toyota has been performing well, benefiting from the weak yen and strong global demand for its vehicles. The company's stock has seen a steady rise, and it continues to attract investor interest due to its solid financial performance and growth prospects. Toyota's stock has increased by 2.97% over the past week.
Written by Charles Shi
Following the RBI's decision on Friday to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, the equity indices completed a strong five-day rally, with the Sensex up 2.39% and NIFTY 50 up 2.27%. The early-month rebound was primarily driven by foreign institutional investors, who turned net buyers, with net inflows of approximately Rs 11,935 Crore in the first week of December after a period of significant sell-offs. Notably, Thursday’s inflow accounted for 71% of this total (Rs 8,540 Crore), driving a 1.5% intraday gain, peaking at 82,312.55 points. This market reversal can be interpreted as a revaluation of the market's strong fundamentals and as a speculative opportunity following the previous downturn. India’s market continues to attract capital, bolstered by its growth potential and profitability. Additionally, the RBI’s 50 basis point cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 4%, coupled with a stable benchmark interest rate, aims to strike a balance between fostering economic growth and controlling inflation. The rise in liquidity and stable interest rates have created a positive market atmosphere in the short term, stabilizing market sentiment and making India an appealing destination for medium- to long-term investments. Moreover, global stock market risk aversion and economic policies are worth closely monitoring, particularly the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut announcement in this month’s meeting, as such policy shifts could have significant implications for global capital flows and the domestic stock market.
Real estate on the rise: The real estate sector is experiencing strong momentum, with the Nifty Real Estate Index up 8% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market index by 4%. Three Indian real estate companies have attracted bullishness from UBS analysts: Prestige Estates, DLF and Oberoi Realty. The first two are rated "Buy," with expected upside of 26% and 18%, respectively, while the latter is rated "Neutral," with an expected upside of 5%. The Indian real estate sector is in its prime, with market oversupply falling to its lowest in 15 years, while purchasing power is at its highest during this period. With India's growing domestic population and urbanization, a combination of potential interest rate cuts, regulatory reforms (RERA) and many other positive factors, the sector expects sustained growth in demand. India is facing a situation similar to China in the early 2000s when its real estate market began a long-term boom. Brokerages forecast that the next three to five years will be a period of sustained growth for the industry, with residential presale CAGR projected to reach 15% during the FY24-29 period. As the trend of remote working continues and the expansion of Global Capacity Centres (GCC) progresses, the commercial segment is expected to grow by 26%.
HDFC Bank Ltd (NSE: HDFCBANK): The stock reached a one-year high on Thursday, with a gain of over 10% in the past three weeks. After the merger of HDFC and HDFC Bank, the bank has continued to generate strong financial performance, driven by sustained growth in net interest income and other revenue sources. Amid a general increase in asset quality issues related to unsecured loans, its superior profitability and asset quality have made its recent performance stand out significantly compared to other large private banks. Responsible actions have further boosted investor confidence. From a technical perspective, the stock is at a 10-month high in its ratio to Bank Nifty, with the MACD enhancing the current bullish momentum, while the RSI remains in a favorable position.
Written by Rachel HU Xinyue
Over the past week, U.S. markets experienced robust gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 188.59 points (+0.42%), reaching a 52-week high on November 29. The NASDAQ advanced by 157.69 points (+0.83%), while the S&P 500 increased by 33.64 points (+0.56%). The 10-year treasury yield fell 14 basis points to 4.265%, while the 2-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.264%. This positive performance appears to be driven, in part, by the announcement that President-elect Trump appointed Wall Street hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent's support for moderating Trump's protectionist policies, including gradual tariff increases to combat inflation, has bolstered investor sentiment and strengthened confidence in the economic outlook. On November 27, the government released the latest PCE report, showing total PCE stabilizing at 2.3%, in line with market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The labor market continues to demonstrate strength, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, and third-quarter GDP growth recorded at a solid 2.8%. During the November monetary policy meeting, it was communicated that the Federal Reserve would pursue a gradual reduction in interest rates starting in December, in response to prevailing economic conditions. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate reduction in December is estimated at 66%.
U.S. sector equities broadly showed an upward trend, with the exception of the Real Estate and Utility sectors, which recorded declines of 0.52% and 0.05%, respectively. Shares of key global semiconductor equipment firms jumped on Thursday after a report that the U.S. is considering sanctions on China’s chip industry that stop short of earlier proposal. The stock price of semiconductor company ASML increased by 2.9% on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, President-elect Trump nominated Dr. Marty Makary, a renowned pancreatic surgeon from Johns Hopkins University, as the new FDA commissioner. Dr. Makary, known for his medical expertise and opposition to anti-vaccine stances, replaces former commissioner Califf. This appointment has fostered investor optimism, leading to an uptick in pharmaceutical stocks.
Ambarella's stock (AMBA) rose 14% to $78.04 on Wednesday, driven by partnerships with Xpeng Motors and Honda and the resolution of inventory issues, despite the broader weakness in the semiconductor market. Dell Technologies (DELL) reported mixed quarterly results with sales falling short of expectations, leading to a 12.3% stock decline on Wednesday, the largest drop in the S&P 500 that day. Applied Therapeutics (APLT) stock plummeted 75% on Friday after the FDA rejected its experimental treatment application for the rare metabolic disorder galactosemia. On Tuesday, Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares rose 6% and 2%, respectively, after the Biden administration proposed expanding coverage of their weight-loss drugs under Medicare and Medicaid.
Written by Robin HONG Yee Ching
European stocks experienced a rally on Friday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closing 0.6% higher, driven by gains in the technology sector and resources-related stocks. However, concerns lingered over trade tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump and ongoing political instability in France, where the government is struggling to pass the budget. Euro-area inflation has risen above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, yet officials remain committed to lowering interest rates in the near future. Despite these challenges, European equities have only gained 1% for the month, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500’s impressive 26% increase this year.
The technology sector led the gains on Friday, contributing significantly to the overall performance of European stocks. Miners also performed well, buoyed by strong iron ore prices amid expectations of increased stimulus from China. Conversely, sectors such as autos and utilities faced headwinds due to tariff concerns and political uncertainties. The market remains cautious as investors weigh the potential impacts of Trump's tariff plans and their implications for European exports.
Anglo American Plc saw a notable rise after Jefferies upgraded its rating to "buy," citing the potential for mergers and acquisitions. Direct Line Insurance Group Plc shares increased for a second consecutive day following reports that Aviva Plc had begun contacting its shareholders. Delivery Hero SE reversed earlier losses after announcing its Middle Eastern unit's IPO pricing at the top of the expected range. Overall, stock movements were influenced by deal-making news amidst broader market uncertainties related to tariffs and political developments in France.
Written by David LU Zhiyuan
This week, A-shares and Hong Kong Stock markets experienced a certain recovery after a slump. The SSE Composite Index increased by 1.57% and closed at 3326; the SZSE Composite Index increased by 2.33% and closed at 11072; the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.29% and closed at 19424. The recovery was boosted by factors such as rising domestic policy expectations of the Chinese Mainland, falling U.S. Treasury interest rates, and the dollar. Compared with A shares, Hong Kong stocks have recently recovered more from their highs; one is because Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to the external disturbance of the "Trump trade," and the other is that the mood change of foreign investors is more drastic than that of domestic investors. In the correction process, overseas funds again flowed out, especially the further deepening of the proportion of active funds allocated to Chinese stocks.
The technology sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks faced declines last week. Semiconductor and internet stocks weakened amid demand concerns, with the CSCI Info Tech Index down 3.8%. Xiaomi has a decrease of 4.8%, and AAC Technologies stays unchanged, which is a significant decrease compared to the increase of 7% last week. The EV sector underperformed last week (November 25 to November 29, 2024). A-share leader BYD dropped 3.64% amid concerns over weak year-end consumer demand. Li Auto rose 1.3% in Hong Kong, driven by expectations of strong November sales. Overall, the sector saw significant capital outflows, with cautious investor sentiment. The consumer staples sector showed resilience last week (November 25–29, 2024). A-share leaders Wuliangye and Moutai rose 1.6% and 1.98%, respectively, supported by year-end demand recovery. In Hong Kong, Mengniu Dairy gained 2.1% on strong sales expectations, while overall sector sentiment improved amid easing concerns over domestic consumption growth.
Alibaba Group (9988.HK): Alibaba rebounded after a two-month decline, supported by bargain hunting and optimism about its restructuring strategy. Improved sentiment in the e-commerce sector, driven by Singles' Day sales data, may have also contributed. Baidu (9888.HK): Baidu recovered after a month-long decline, likely driven by optimism around its AI ecosystem and the recent expansion of its large language model (Ernie Bot). The rebound also reflects oversold conditions in prior weeks. Hangzhou Wensli Silk Culture (301066.SZ): Wensli surged due to expectations around its high-end silk product expansion and increased demand for cultural exports. Speculative trading likely amplified the gains.
Written by Dacian DENG Shen
Japanese stocks posted modest losses last week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.2% and the TOPIX Index down 0.6%. Geopolitical risks dampened global investor sentiment, boosting demand for safer assets. The resulting yen appreciation pressured Japan's export-heavy sectors. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, 40.3% of stocks rose, while 56.6% declined. The yen strengthened to around JPY 150 against the USD, from JPY 154 the previous week, driven by safe-haven appeal and domestic inflation concerns. The Tokyo-area core CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year in November, exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, likely in December or January. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.06% from 1.08% but remained near a 13-year high amid BoJ rate hike speculation. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that rate increases depend on economic and price trends meeting forecasts. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba presented a stimulus plan to parliament, seeking approval for an extra budget to support rural economies and counter inflation's impact. The plan includes energy subsidies, cash handouts for low-income households, and a higher tax-free salary threshold to boost disposable income. Ishiba aims to foster wage growth exceeding inflation and investment-led economic growth, continuing his predecessor’s policy direction.
By sector, transportation equipment, machinery, precision instruments, electrical equipment, and shipping saw declines, while banking, insurance, textiles, services, and utilities posted gains. The market remained resilient, supported by buying in financial and domestic demand-driven stocks.
Toyota Motor Corporation shares remained stable on Friday. In October, global sales rose 1.4% to 903,103 vehicles, the first increase in five months. Sales outside Japan grew 0.4% to 759,555, including Lexus but excluding Daihatsu and Hino. North American sales dropped 5.3%, while Latin America saw an 18.6% rise, and Europe grew by 1.4%. Global production fell 0.8% year-over-year to 893,164 vehicles. Production in China decreased 8.7%, and Thailand saw a 12.8% decline. Toyota plans to produce at least 2.5 million vehicles annually in China by 2030, emphasising closer integration of sales and production and more local executive control. In the U.S., North American COO Jack Hollis criticised rapid EV adoption policies, arguing they don't align with consumer demand. He noted a gap between regulatory goals and buyer preferences, particularly regarding EPA and California emissions standards. Stock Movement: TM shares rose 0.40% to $170.40 as of the latest check Friday.
Written by Justin CHUNG Lok Yin
The Sensex benchmark and the NIFTY 50 Index both experienced a downturn on November 28, Thursday and did not recover during the week. They recorded declines of 0.47% and 0.74% respectively. The drop is attributed to increased geopolitical tensions in Israel and Ukraine. Against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields since September, investors may have shifted their focus to bonds and forex, contributing to the mid-week downturn. On November 29, preliminary data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation indicated that India's GDP growth was only 5.4% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024, well below the lowest forecasts. This marked the slowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite initiatives like the PLI scheme and the "Make in India" campaign, manufacturing growth decelerated to 2.2%. Furthermore, exports slowed to 2.8% and imports shrunk by 2.9%, underscoring significant domestic challenges. Coupled with recent strong inflation figures (recap: domestic inflation hit a 14-month high of 6.21% last week, surpassing the 6% threshold), analysts are now divided over whether the Reserve Bank of India will implement a rate cut or maintain rates at their next meeting on December 6. The consensus leans towards maintaining current rates.
The agriculture sector saw a recovery, growing at a rate of 3.5% after underperforming in the previous four quarters, indicating a potential uptick in rural demand. In October, coal, steel, and cement production increased by 7.8%, 4.2%, and 3.3% respectively. Conversely, crude oil and natural gas production fell by 4.8% and 1.2%. Manufacturing growth in the third quarter of 2024 slowed to 2.2% from 7.0%. The construction sector's momentum was sluggish, and the mining and quarrying sector entered a contraction phase.
Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT) Rebound Attempt: Following allegations of fraud involving the company’s executives last week, Adani Enterprises' stock price bottomed at ₹2145.65 on November 26, Tuesday. This week, Adani issued a statement denying all bribery allegations against Chairman Gautam Adani. The group also assured that all its portfolio companies have adequate liquidity to meet their debt obligations for at least the next year. Following these positive announcements, subsidiary Adani Green Energy (NSE: ADANIGREEN) saw a 10%increase, while the main company, Adani Enterprises, surged by 11.5%.
Written by Sarah LEONG Si Ian
In the previous week, 3 major indexes rallied due to higher-than-expected global service PMI and the S&P 500 peaked at 5972.9, +0.35%. Russell 2000 also steadily increased, hitting a peak of 2409.22, +1.87%. The NASDAQ Comp closed at 19003.65 on Friday.
Data-wise, the U.S. labour market remained healthy with the initial jobless claims stood at 212k, down from expectations of 220K. The Service PMI index improved to 57, signalling growth in the service sector. Existing home sales were reported at 3.96 million, slightly higher than expected, which seemed to help drive positive sentiment toward the end of the week.
WTI prices, at $70.7 received some support from a drop of US API weekly crude oil stock was reported on Wed at 4.753 million, fell by 0.573, as well as from the rise in PMI data.
The utilities sector outperformed as commentary on NVIDIA’s earnings call seemed to drive optimism around rising artificial intelligence-driven demand for clean energy.
Communication services stocks lagged, driven in part by a drop in shares of Google parent Alphabet following reports of the Justice Department filing a proposal to break up the internet search giant.
AAPL fluctuated throughout the week but exhibited an overall upward trend, reaching a peak of 230.72. In the previous week, the net outflow exceeded the net inflow by 32,576.87, with the majority of transactions being small orders. The total trading volume was 821.39K, and the put-call ratio stood at 0.68, indicating a bullish sentiment toward the stock. Apple’s P/E ratio was 37.81, significantly higher than the historical 10-year average of 21.43. NVDA’s Q3 earnings release on Wednesday. Shares of the chip giant ended the week little changed as investors appeared to be generally satisfied with the results.
Written by Kathy TAM Ka Loi
European markets had a mixed day, with the Stoxx 600 index up 1.18%, fueled by strong performances in health care and retail stocks. In the U.K., the pound hit a six-month low against the U.S. dollar after retail sales fell 0.7% in October, much worse than the expected 0.3% drop. Despite this, the FTSE 100 rose 1.4% as investors considered the possibility of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the euro weakened after disappointing PMI data revealed a significant decline in Eurozone business activity, with the composite index dropping to 48.1 in November. This was largely due to reduced new business and ongoing political instability in France and Germany, while Germany's GDP growth for the third quarter was revised down to just 0.1%.
In November 2024, the UK retail sector faced significant challenges as retail sales fell more than expected, declining by 0.7% on a monthly basis in October, in contrast to a revised 0.1% rise in September. Excluding auto fuel, sales fell 0.9%, with non-food stores experiencing a 1.4% reduction in sales volumes. Factors contributing to this downturn included reduced consumer spending on food and clothing, alongside heightened uncertainty from the Autumn Budget, which raised concerns about tax increases. Year-on-year growth in retail sales slowed to 2.4% in October from 3.2% in September. Despite the decline, consumer confidence showed some improvement in November, with the confidence index rising to -18 from -21 in October, suggesting that consumers were beginning to feel slightly more optimistic ahead of the holiday shopping season. However, the overall economic picture remains precarious, as households grapple with budget uncertainties and inflationary pressures.
The Underperformance of NVO: Novo Nordisk's stock has plunged 25.1% over the past three months, significantly underperforming the industry and the S&P 500. This decline was primarily driven by disappointing third-quarter results, where diabetes and obesity care sales failed to meet investor expectations, leading management to lower its forecasts for both sales and operating profit growth. The company is struggling to meet the heavy demand for its semaglutide drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, particularly in the U.S. market. In contrast, competitor Eli Lilly has successfully increased its production capacity for similar drugs. Furthermore, criticism from U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders regarding high drug prices compared to other countries has added to the stock's challenges. Despite these setbacks, analysts remain optimistic about Novo Nordisk's strong fundamentals, including a 90.3% revenue increase over five years and a net profit margin exceeding 31%, suggesting that the current decline may represent a temporary setback for long-term investors.
Written by Alexander ANTONIOU
Chinese equities faced declines, with SSE Composite Index dropping 3.06% and SZSE Component falling 3.52%. Investors expressed concerns about the effectiveness of recent stimulus and potential for higher American tariffs under the Trump administration, contributing to a negative sentiment in the market. HSI has also declined as a result of this, with a 1.9% loss (371 points). The Chinese government has been investing effort in supporting the economy, including a debt swap worth RMB 10 trillion, to ease local government debt burdens; analysts indicate that more robust measures may be required to offset the effects of potential US policy changes. Chinese banks left their one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. The move was largely anticipated after banks slashed the benchmark lending rates by a greater-than-expected 25 basis points in October, making it cheaper for consumers to take out mortgages and other loans.
Chips, internet and securities services industries declined while Apple concept stocks rose against the trend, with AAC Technologies (2018.HK) rising more than 7%. On the news front, it is reported that Apple is developing a Siri digital assistant with stronger conversational capabilities, aiming to surpass OpenAI's ChatGPT and other voice services.
The gaming sector outperformed as the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval information of domestic online games in November 2024. A total of 112 games were approved, and the number of games issued exceeded 110 for the second consecutive month.
The EV sector underperformed as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway pared its stake in BYD to less than 5%, further unwinding its long-term bet on China’s largest electric-vehicle maker amid a broader refocus on U.S. investments.
Baidu (9888.HK) plunged over -8% in Hong Kong after the search engine operator reported disappointing Q3 online marketing revenue. Alibaba Group (9988.HK) fell more than -4% in Hong Kong after rival PDD Holdings cautioned about intensifying competition in the e-commerce industry. CNOOC (0883.HK/600938.SH) added 1.19% after announced to add a fourth production vessel to the ones already operating in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, alongside with Exxon Mobil and Hess. Xiaomi (1810.HK) rallied for 1.42% on Fri as internal sources claimed that it's second EV model is planned to be launched in Feb/ March next year.
Written by Kim CHUI Chunho
Following two consecutive sessions of declines, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices rebounded, closing higher by 0.68% at 38,283.85 and 0.51% at 2,696.53,
respectively, on Friday. However, both indices recorded weekly losses of 1.6% and 1.06%. This rebound was driven by gains in technology stocks, particularly those weighted in chips, in response to NVIDIA’s rise in the US NASDAQ market. Nonetheless, concerns over high valuations and a strengthening US Dollar Index continued to exert selling pressure on the Japanese stock market.
In November, data from the Japanese Ministry of Statistics revealed that domestic inflation for October increased by 2.3% year-on-year (YoY), slightly surpassing the forecast of 2.2%. This marks the highest inflation rate in 14 months, exceeding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) target of 2%.
The persistently high inflation has diminished the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures, leading to lowered market expectations for a potential rate cut by the BOJ at its upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19. Analysts now anticipate a hike in short-term rates to 0.5% from the current 0.25%, as inflationary pressures persist due to rising wages and the renewed depreciation of the yen.
Technology Sector: Chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron (8035.T) jumped 2.16%; Chip-testing equipment maker Advantest (6857.T) rose 0.66%; Chip materials maker Resonac (4004.T) jumped 4.66%.
Transportation Sector: The TOPIX Transportation Equipment Index (.ITEQP.T) experienced a slight decline of 0.15%, with Toyota Motor (7203.T) falling by 0.37%, which weighed on the Topix index.
Health Services Sector: The TOPIX Pharmaceutical Index (.IPHAM.T) decreased by 0.43%, driven by a 1.07% decline in Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T).
On Wednesday, November 20, Sony Group Corp. (TYO: 6758) announced acquisition discussions with media conglomerate Kadokawa, the company behind popular titles such as Elden Ring and Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice. In early afternoon trading, Kadokawa shares rose by 15.91% to ¥4,341 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, while Sony Group Corp. also advanced by 2.86% to ¥3,020, despite the broader market’s Nikkei 225 index drifting lower.
According to data from a Sony presentation, the anime market is projected to nearly double to $60 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in Japan's gaming and entertainment industry.
Written by Charles SHI Qiyuan
Despite a significant mid-week decline, both the Sensex benchmark and the NIFTY 50 Index rebounded to close higher, with respective gains of 1.98% and 1.46%. This is driven by widespread healthy buying, particularly in heavyweight stocks. However, concerns over high valuations and the rise of the US Dollar Index continued to exert selling pressure on the Indian stock market. Since October, foreign institutional investors have withdrawn a total of INR 1.2168 trillion (equivalent to over HKD 120 billion). On November 18, net selling of Indian equities by global funds triggered a sharp market downturn, with the Sensex falling by 853.99 points (0.31%) to close at 77,339.01 points, reflecting a cumulative decline of more than 10% from its September peak. Similarly, the Nifty index has also fallen by more than 10% from its historical high. Furthermore, data from the Indian Ministry of Statistics revealed that domestic inflation for October rose by 6.21% year-on-year, the highest level in 14 months, exceeding the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%-6%. The persistence of high inflation has further dampened the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures, diminishing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the RBI at its upcoming policy meeting on December 6.
The upcoming results of the Maharashtra elections could lead to a rebound in the infrastructure and banking sectors. The NDA, led by the BJP, is expected to secure a decisive victory in the elections, and the government has placed a special focus on infrastructure development. As companies in the infrastructure sector seek credit lines from banks, banking stocks may also see some potential buying interest. Investors have already started to pay attention to stocks in the railway, infrastructure, and banking sectors. The positive impact of political stability on investor sentiment is likely to drive a shift in investment strategies from defensive to more aggressive positions.
Stock Crash of Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT): On Thursday, November 21, Gautam Adani and seven other corporate executives were charged in New York for allegedly being involved in a multi-billion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme. Despite the group denying the allegations and actively seeking legal remedies, panic selling led to significant losses in Adani Group-related stocks. The biggest drop was seen in the heavyweight stock Adani Enterprises, which closed at ₹2,182.55 on the 21st, falling 22.61% to reach its lowest point. This sell-off directly impacted the Indian stock market, with Sensex dropping 422.59 points (0.54%) and NIFTY 50 falling 168.60 points (0.72%) on the same day.
Written by Erika Lau and Kevin Xia
The U.S. stock market saw a partial retreat from the gains made during the “Trump Trade” period, with uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s policies influencing market movements. Data-wise, inflation data on Wed were largely in line with expectations with headline prices rising 0.2% in October and core prices rising 3%. Yoy headline inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, for the first time since March. Powell spoke on Thu that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” Which lowers the CME 25bps cut in December from 64.6% to 58.4%. Long-term interest rates rose, reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reaching a five-month high. Corporate bond markets saw active issuance, with spreads widening as investors focused on new supply. Similarly, the high yield market experienced some downward pressure due to rate movements and increased primary market activity, while the bank loan market remained active with a high volume of new deals.
Electric vehicle (EV) stocks, including Tesla, experienced fluctuations following reports of the potential end of tax credits for EV purchases by the incoming administration. Economic indicators such as inflation data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added to market dynamics, with expectations for interest rate cuts shifting slightly over the week. Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third (32.46%) since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. However, sectors like financials and energy benefited from hopes of deregulation, while health care shares faced a decline due to concerns over the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., known for his criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry.
In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.69% lower, falling for a fourth consecutive week due to the concern about upcoming Trump administration and trade policies. Higher tariffs on eurozone exports to the US could weaken economic growth in the eurozone, but would have a mixed effect on inflation, according to ECB’s Piero Cipollone. The impact on euro area inflation could be offset by a weakening euro, which would increase the prices of imports priced in US dollars. The European Commission’s Autumn Economic Forecast projects GDP growth in 2024 at 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. Economic activity is expected to accelerate in 2025 and 2026, with inflation easing significantly.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.52%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 3.29%. HSI plunged 6.28% amid persistent deflation pressure and worries over US tariffs. China consumer price index rose 0.3%, lower than consensus and down from 0.4% from Sep.
Property - There was a 0.5% decrease in new home prices across 70 cities in October compared to September. This followed a 0.7% drop in home prices from August to September. Bloomberg reported that October saw the second consecutive month of decelerating home price declines, with the slowest rate of decline since March. The positive trend was attributed to a set of stimulus actions implemented by Beijing in recent months to revitalize the housing market, such as lowering mortgage rates, easing home purchase restrictions in major cities, and reducing taxes on property transactions.
Japan’s stock markets experienced a decline during the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index dropping by 2.2% and the broader TOPIX Index decreasing by 1.1%. The yen depreciated to the JPY 155 level against the U.S. dollar, compared to 152.6 following the US election outcomes. This shift was influenced by anticipations that Trump’s win could lead to inflationary policies, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s intentions to reduce borrowing rates.
Written by Erika Lau
Positive bank and tech earnings over the past week saw Wall Street indexes hit a series of record highs, with upcoming earnings likely to decide whether this momentum will continue. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,864.67 points on Friday, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.6% to 18,489.67 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% but just managed to hit a record high of 43,257.91 points. U.S. retail sales increased 0.4% last month vs est. 0.3% vs prev. 0.1%. A measure of retail sales that excludes auto dealerships, building materials, food services, and gas stations climbed 0.7% from the prior month—the fastest rate of growth in three months. Industrial production dropped 0.3% in September after increasing 0.3% in the preceding month. The final number for August was revised downward from an initial estimate of 0.8%. Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 241,000.
Energy stocks pulled back in sympathy with oil prices, which retreated as fears of possible Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure subsided. Strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that in view of the increased possibility of Trump being elected and the Republican Party taking control of Congress, investors have begun to increase their positions in assets that performed well after Trump won in 2016, including banks, small stocks and the U.S. dollar.
Netflix NFLX was up 11% on Friday after reporting to have grew its subscriber numbers and expanded its operating margins by more than expected in the third quarter. Strong quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM, which operates foundries that make advanced digital semiconductors, appeared to reignite excitement for artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks that are in the Nasdaq. This week: TSLA is the biggest company to report earnings this Wed, after another EV maker GM on Tue. Major chips stocks TXN (Tue) LRCX (Wed) and WDC (Thu) are also set to report. Boarder tech sector IBM due on Wed. Telecom majors VZ (Tue), TMUS (Wed) and T (Wed) are also due. Consumer names LRLCY (Tue), MMM (Tue), KO (Wed)
Chinese equities rose as the central bank unveiled more support measures after data showed that deflationary pressures grew more entrenched in the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.36% in local currency terms, while the blue chip CSI 300 added 0.98%. HSI Index fell 2.11%. GDP reported to be at 4.6% higher than consensus, though lower than Q2 at 4.7% and government’s target at 5%. Other economic data showed signs of improvement. Industrial production rose a better-than-expected 5.4% yoy vs prev. +4.5%. Retail sales grew an above-forecast 3.2 yoy vs prev. +2.1%. Higher sales ofhousehold appliances were a contributing factor. Meanwhile, PPI fell a bigger-than-expected 2.8% from a year ago, deepening from August’s 1.8% drop.
TAIEX were up 2.3% driven up by TSMC (2330) positive earnings report on Friday. Net revenue came in at $23.5 billion in the third quarter, up 36% year on year. The starting price of Vivo’s latest “X200” series equipped with MediaTek’s (2454) new flagship 5G chip “Dimensity 9400" is 7.5% higher than market expectations. The industry believes that it is related to the substantial increase in the unit price of MediaTek’s Dimensity 9400, which is expected to trigger subsequent more non-Apple brands followed up with price increases, benefiting the share price ofMediaTek.
Written by Erika Lau
S&P 500 ended higher over the week driven by upside earning surprise despite disappointing economic data. Markets were pricing a roughly 18% chance the Fed doesn’t cut in November, up from a 3% chance seen a week prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Thursday released headline and core (less food and energy) inflation, which rose in September by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, both a tick above expectations. There was also a surprising jump in weekly jobless claims to 258,000, the highest level in 14 months. Long-term bond yields also rose in the wake of the inflation data, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hitting its highest intraday level (4.12%) since July 31. The investment-grade corporate bond market remained also mostly oversubscribed. Focus this week is now on addresses from a string of Fed officials, which are likely to provide more cues on the central bank’s plans to cut interest rates further.
JPM and WF rose on Friday after the banking giants reported smaller-than-feared declines in third-quarter profits. NVIDIA raised following reports that the Justice Department was considering asking a federal judge to order a breakup of the company. TSLA weakened after the disappointing unveiling of its new “robotaxis” and “robovans.” Upcoming earnings report this week: JNJ, BAC, C, GS, UAL set to report on Tuesday. MS will report on Wednesday, rounding out the major bank earnings. Chipmaking bellwether also reports on Wednesday. NFLX will report on Thursday.
Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.56%, CSI300 -3.25% and HIS -6.53%, pulling back from the peak in the week before after optimism of the policy boost faded. The People’s Bank of China initiated a swap facility worth RMB 500 billion to inject liquidity into institutional investors for stock purchases. This program allows nonbank financial entities like securities firms, funds, and insurers to access highly liquid assets such as government bonds and central bank bills by providing specific collateral. This move was a part of an extensive stimulus plan unveiled by the central bank in late September, which encompassed interest rate reductions and other strategies aimed at revitalizing China’s economy. Spending by Chinese consumers during the recent extended holiday fell short of pre-pandemic levels. Official data revealed a 5.9% rise in passenger traffic and a 6.3% increase in spending compared to the previous year. Box office earnings stood at RMB 2.1 billion, a decline from RMB 2.7 billion recorded a year ago. Nevertheless, the average daily expenditure per trip rose to about RMB 131, up from RMB 113 during the five-day Labor Day break in May. Earlier this morning, Goldman Sachs raises China’s GDP forecast to 4.9% in 2024.
EV: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co 2238.HK is exploring the manufacture of EVs in Europe to avoid EU tariffs. It will launch an electric SUV tailored to the European market at the Paris Auto Show, kicking off on Monday.
TAIEX was up 1.92% following the rally in the US market and over the chip sector. TSMC led the raise for 4.73% while Hon Hai dropped 0.5%.
Semiconductors: TSMC 2330.TW and Largan 3008.TW will jointly hold a meeting on the 17th. TSMC will announce its third-quarter operating results and release its industry outlook. With ASML’s financial report will be released the day before TSMC’s legal meeting, investors are concerned about the Dutch government’s expansion of its export controls on two deep ultraviolet exposure machines (DUV) from mainland China, including the 1970i and 1980i. Automobile: Tong Yang Industry Co Ltd 1319.TW (+1%) reported 3.934 billion yuan before tax revenue in the first three quarters of last year.
Written by Erika Lau
Over the week, S&P 500 moved to record highs, as investors appeared to celebrate new stimulus measures in China. Sector-wise, Chemicals and materials stocks were particularly strong on hopes for a rebound in Chinese demand. Copper prices also increased, raising hopes that “Doctor Copper” was again reflecting a healthier global industrial economy. Technology stocks outperformed as well, helped by reports of a possible takeover of Intel and news that NVIDIA’s CEO had ceased sales of his own shares in the company. In addition, chipmaker Micron Technology surged and seemed to provide a general tailwind for the sector following its upbeat outlook for AI demand. Data-wise, Consumer confidence on Tue fell to 98.7, largely missed consenus of 103.9. New home sales on Wed declined 4.7% in August while building permits data were revised lower. PCE on Fri rose only 0.1% in August, a tick below expectations. On a yoy basis, the index climbed only 2.2%, close to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term inflation target and the least since February 2021, suggesting a moderation in inflationary pressures. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ended little changed for the week.
Chinese stocks surged after Beijing unveiled a slew of measures to shore up the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 12.8%, while the blue chip CSI 300 soared 15.7%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index gained 13%. PBOC cut its RRR by 50 basis points, and reduced its seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points to 1.5%. It cut the MLF rate by 30 basis points to 2%, marking the largest-ever cut to the monetary policy tool since 2016. The moves were part of a sweeping stimulus package announced last Tuesday at a rare press conference by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng that aims to jumpstart China’s ailing economy. Other measures unveiled by the PBOC included a rate cut for existing home mortgages and slashing the nationwide down payment ratio for second home purchases to 15% from 25%.
Japan’s stock markets gained over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 5.6% and the broader TOPIX Index up 3.7%. The latest commentary from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), perceived as dovish, weighed on the yen, providing a favorable backdrop. Optimism also came from China’s stimulus announcements, especially for the exports to China. The new Prime Minister was elected to be Shigeru Ishiba on Fri, who has been critical of the Bank of Japan’s easy policies in the past. However, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend saying monetary policy “must remain accommodative” given the state of the economy. That helped the dollar bounce 0.5% to 142.85 yen, after sliding 1.8% on Friday from a 146.49 top. Interest rate - BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank has enough time to assess market and economic developments before adjusting monetary policy again—suggesting that it is in no rush to raise rates further.
Written by Erika Lau
The large-cap indexes moved to record highs as investors celebrated the kickoff of the rate-cutting cycle by a 50 bps cut on Thursday morning. The rally was also relatively broad, with the smaller-cap indexes outperforming, although they remained below previous peaks—the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, in particular, ended the week roughly 9% below the all-time high it established in November 2021. The rally is accompanied by good consumer data that ease recession fears. Retail sales on Tue had risen 0.1%, which was more than expected and which followed an upwardly revised jump of 1.1% in July. The downside surprise on jobless claims on Thu provided more evidence for supporting the consumer in good shape. The housing sector also improved by a 4.9% rise in housing permits of August on Wed, although sales of existing homes had unexpectedly fallen 2.5%.
10 year treasury yield rose. Spreads in the investment-grade corporate bond market tightened throughout the week as higher rates spurred demand early in the week. Issuance occurred early in the week, before the Fed’s policy meeting, and was, on average, oversubscribed.
INTC ended the week with an announcement of a potential acquisition with Qualcomm which helped pushed the stock up 11% for the week.
Chinese equities rose in a holiday-shortened week as the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates offset a batch of disappointing economic data. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.21%, while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.32%. Disappointing foreign direct investment flows on Friday were down 31.5% on the same period last year, the biggest fall since January 2009. Industrial production rose 4.5% from a year earlier, lagging forecasts and down from July’s 5.1% increase amid weaker commodity prices and auto sales. Retail sales expanded a below-consensus 2.1% from a year ago, easing from July’s 2.7% rise. The yuan is its strongest in 16 months though, thanks to the central bank’s reluctance to cut rates and rising expectations that authorities will soon unveil stimulus that will revive growth, asset prices and confidence. Sector-wise, EU tariffs on Chinese EV makers are revised down. BYD saw tariffs cut to 17% from 17.4%, Geely to 19.3% from 19.9%, and SAIC saw a reduction to 36.3% from 37.6%. Despite the tariffs, analysts say Chinese EV prices will remain competitive in Europe when compared to Chinese-made Tesla. Research by Rhodium group suggests tariffs of up to 50% are needed to significantly deter Chinese EV exports. Tech-front, the U.S. Commerce Department is expected on Monday to propose prohibiting Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads due to national security concerns, sources told Reuters. The proposed regulation would ban the import and sale of vehicles from China with key communications or automated driving system software or hardware. More details await.
BYD is expected to expand into Pakistan in partnership with Pakistan’s biggest private electricity producer Hub Power’s subsidiary Mega Motor to set up the country’s first electric vehicle assembly plant by 2026.
Japan’s stock markets rose over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 3.1% and the broader TOPIX Index up 2.8%. The Bank of Japan decided not to raise rates, but it signaled it is in no hurry to raise them again. This helped push the yen to its weakest daily close since September 4, which in turn helped lift Japanese stocks. The yen starts the week on a soft footing after a roller-coaster ride last week. It rallied through 140.00 per dollar for the first time in over a year but closed near 144.00 per dollar for a weekly loss of 2%, its worst week since April. Data-wise, core CPI rose 2.8% year on year in August, in line with expectations and up from 2.7% in July. The overall CPI rose 3.0%, also matching consensus and up from the prior month’s 2.8%.
Written by Dacian Deng
U.S. stocks rebounded after a sell-off, led by strong gains in growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, with NVIDIA playing a key role. Inflation data for August was mixed, with core inflation slightly exceeding expectations, while housing sector data offered some hope as mortgage rates hit their lowest level since February 2023. Treasury yields also reached year-to-date lows, with strong performance in high-yield bonds supported by equity gains and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. FOMC cut rates by 50 basis points (bps), bringing them to a range of 4.75%-5.0%, but signalled a more gradual pace of rate cuts moving forward. The dot plot suggests further cuts totalling 100bps in both 2024 and 2025, indicating a cautious approach. Chairman Powell emphasized that the economy is not at risk of recession, with the labour market remaining a key focus to prevent further deterioration. While markets had priced in 250bps of cuts over the next year, Powell’s remarks and the dot plot suggest that actual rate cuts will likely be smaller, around 150bps, unless the economy weakens significantly. The Fed will continue to monitor economic data to guide future decisions, implying a flexible policy stance going forward.
Stocks rose following an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), though the ECB gave no clear direction on future policy moves. Meanwhile, the UK economy stagnated, but wage growth remained high, complicating inflation control efforts.
Japan saw mixed stock performance, and hawkish comments from policymakers pointed to further rate hikes. However, GDP growth for the second quarter was revised lower. In China, weak inflation data raised concerns of an economic slowdown, although export growth exceeded expectations, providing a rare bright spot amid ongoing challenges in the property sector. Reference: https://corporate.nordea.com/article/95391/fomc-review-don-t-get-used-to-50s https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html
Written by Erika Lau
Stocks ended mixed in light pre-holiday trading with the Nasdaq Composite performing the worst due to NVIDIA's decline of more than 10%. CPE raise by 0.2% in July, largely as expected, although the year-over-year increase came in a tick lower than consensus, at 2.6%. Investors seemed pleased with confirmation that inflation was remaining subdued and near the Fed’s target, with Nasdaq futures, in particular, surging in the wake of the release. Personal incomes had increased an unexpected 0.3% in July, up from June’s 0.2%. Personal spending rose even more, 0.5%, although the gain was in line with consensus. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note drifted higher over the week, as hopes appeared to dim that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by a full 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point) at its mid-September meeting.
European stock indexes rose, with STOXX Europe 600 reaching a record high amidst prospects of ECB interest rate cuts. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index surged by 1.34%, reaching an all-time high. This key indicator continued its upward trend for the fourth consecutive week as significantly slower inflation provided grounds for the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider reducing interest rates in September. Inflation has approached its target level, with headline annual inflation dropping to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in July—the lowest figure in three years and slightly above the ECB's 2% goal.
The Shanghai Composite Index is down for 0.43% while HSI is up for 2.17% after mixed corporate earnings data. Investor downgraded their expectations on some of the key economic data such as Retail Sales, from 4.5% to 4.0%, Fixed Asset Invesment, from 4.4% to 4.2% and Consumer Price Index, from 0.6% to 0.5%. Given the above slowdown in growth, China might not be able to meet it’s GDP target of 5% this year. In terms of monetary policy, the medium-term lending facilities remains the same at 2.3% while the short term 7 day repo lending rate remains at 1.7%.
Written by Kayla Tarliman
Last week saw significant fluctuations in US stocks. An early-week rally propelled markets to new highs, but the momentum faded towards the end of the week, primarily due to a downturn in the tech sector. The major indices ended mixed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower, while the Dow posted a solid gain.
Both stock prices and interest rates had been rising together earlier in 2024. However, recently, interest rates have declined significantly due to moderating inflation and anticipated Fed rate cuts. Despite this, equities continue their uptrend, bolstered by rising corporate earnings.
A key theme last week was the rotation in market leadership. The tech sector experienced a pullback, while cyclical sectors, which had lagged this year, gained traction. This shift was highlighted by a robust rally in small-cap stocks. Such changes underscore the importance of maintaining a diversified and balanced investment portfolio.
A sharp selloff in high-flying tech stocks led to the S&P 500 experiencing its worst day since December 2022. The index fell 2.3% on Wednesday, breaking a 356-session streak without a 2% decline, its longest streak in 17 years. This came after the index had risen significantly above its 200-day moving average the previous week, a level historically associated with past selloffs.
European stocks are set to open lower on Thursday following significant losses in US stocks overnight, driven by steep declines in the tech sector. European markets extended their losses on Friday, marking the longest losing streak since October 2023. A tech outage caused by defective CrowdStrike software disrupted Microsoft’s Azure and Office365 services, affecting various sectors globally.
By mid-morning CET, the Euro STOXX 50 had fallen 0.5%, and the Euro STOXX 600 was down 0.6%, marking the fifth consecutive session of losses. Major country indices were all in negative territory, with Germany’s DAX down 0.8%, Italy’s FTSE MIB down 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.7%, and Spain’s Ibex 35 down 0.3%.
Travel and shipping sectors were hit hard by the tech outage. Air France-KLM’s Dutch arm halted most operations, leading to a 1.1% drop in its shares. Lufthansa Group shares fell 1.5% amid warnings of potential delays and cancellations. Similarly, low-cost carriers Ryanair and Wizz Air experienced significant check-in system failures, causing shares to drop by 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively.
European banks also recorded losses, though less severe than those in the travel and shipping sectors. French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole saw declines, as did Spanish banks Banco Santander, BBVA, and Bankinter. In Germany, Deutsche Bank shares fell by 1.5%, marking their tenth negative session in the last eleven.
In the bond market, yields held steady, with Bund yields down marginally by 1 basis point to 2.43%. The euro eased by 0.1% against the dollar, falling to 1.0880, while the British pound was down 0.3% to 1.2910.
CrowdStrike Holdings plummeted over 20% in pre-market trading after an update to its cloud platform caused disruptions to Microsoft’s Azure systems. This marked CrowdStrike's worst daily performance since its IPO in 2019. Meanwhile, competitors like SentinelOne, Palo Alto Networks, and Cloudflare saw gains.
Chinese shares ended lower due to muted investor sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5%, the Shenzhen Composite Index declined 1.3%, and the ChiNext Price Index dropped 1.2%. Property and auto stocks led the losses, with limited expectations for property stimulus measures from the upcoming Politburo meeting. Hong Kong shares also ended lower, weighed down by technology stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 1.5%. Major decliners included Meituan and Xiaomi, while gainers included China Resources Power and Cnooc.
Japanese stocks ended lower amid cautious sentiment over potential Bank of Japan rate increases and a rebounding yen. The Nikkei Stock Average declined 1.1%, with notable drops in Mitsubishi Motors, Isuzu Motors, and Sumitomo Realty & Development.
Indian shares closed lower, impacted by finance and bank stocks amid concerns over the budget plan and proposed higher capital gains taxes. The benchmark Sensex declined 0.35%, though Tech Mahindra and Tata Motors saw gains.
Asian shares were hit hard on Thursday as a global tech slump sent investors fleeing to safer assets like short-dated bonds, the yen, and the Swiss franc. Chinese stocks received little support despite a surprise rate cut by the central bank. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.7%, with Japan's Nikkei tumbling 2.9% and South Korea's KOSPI dropping 2%.
Sources:
The S&P 500 Index continued to climb to record highs, although the market’s gains remained notably narrow. As measured by Russell 1000 indexes, growth shares outperformed value stocks by 415 basis points (4.15 percentage points), while the small- and mid-cap benchmarks recorded losses.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the week 73.71% off its lows since the market began its rebound in mid- to late-2022, while the more value-oriented and narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained less than half of that amount, 32.79%. Markets were closed Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, and T. Rowe Price traders noted lighter trading volumes as the week progressed.
Expectations for lower interest rates, fed by signs of weakening growth and easing inflation pressures, seemed to remain a major factor in favoring growth stocks by placing a lower implied discount on future earnings. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted its lowest reading of manufacturing activity (48.5, with levels below 50.0 indicating contraction) since February. A separate reading also showed a surprise contraction in construction activity.
While the thought of a slowing economy and a potential recession can be concerning, it is important to remember that they are a natural part of every economic cycle and set the stage for the next growth phase. Fortunately, with the slow unwinding of inflation over the past two years, the Fed should have more room to cut rates, which we believe will shorten the length and severity of a potential recession and help contain the slowdown.
In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 1.01% higher. Political jitters eased as the far right in France failed to win an outright majority in the first round of legislative elections on June 30. Meanwhile, the Labour Party won the UK general election on July 4 with a large majority. Major stock indexes also rose, with France’s CAC 40 Index climbing 2.62%, Germany’s DAX gaining 1.32%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB putting on 2.51%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.49%.
A final estimate of eurozone inflation confirmed that the year-over-year change in consumer prices ticked lower in June to 2.5%. However, a crucial services component remained stubbornly high, likely reinforcing the ECB’s case for caution.
Japan’s stock markets gained ground, with the Nikkei 225 Index climbing 3.36% and the broader TOPIX Index advancing 2.65% in local currency terms. Both indexes hit all-time highs during the week, propelled in part by weakness in the Japanese yen, which is typically a tailwind for export-focused industries. The yen strengthened a bit later in the week. In the first three months of the year, Japan’s economy shrank by 2.9% year over year, a sharper contraction than the first estimate that put the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) at 1.8%. The government attributed this revision to corrections in construction orders. The annualized change in GDP was also lowered for the fourth and third quarters of 2023.
Chinese equities fell as underwhelming manufacturing data reinforced concerns about the slowing economy. The Shanghai Composite Index and the blue chip CSI 300 both registered modest losses for the week. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.46% during a holiday-shortened week.
The value of new home sales by the country’s top 100 developers fell 17% in June from the prior-year period, easing from a 34% decline in May, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp. The data boosted hopes that China’s housing market, now in its fourth year of a downturn, may start to gain traction after the government announced a sweeping rescue package in May. China's manufacturing sector shrank in June for the second consecutive month, government data showed. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached 49.5 in June, unchanged from May, as new orders and exports declined. The data reflected the uneven performance of China’s economy this year amid a yearslong property slump that has hit domestic consumption and rising trade tensions that threaten the manufacturing sector.
Sources:
Written by Xia Yunchu
Labor Market Recovery: The US economy added 559,000 jobs in June 2024, beating expectations. The unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, signaling a robust labor market recovery. However, wage growth remains moderate, and some sectors face labor shortages. Consumer Slowdown: Recent data shows a slowdown in US retail sales. Consumers are becoming cautious due to rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainties related to the pandemic. This trend could impact economic recovery and corporate profits.
Fiscal Challenges: The Eurozone faces fiscal challenges stemming from an aging population. As birth rates decline, the proportion of elderly citizens increases. This puts pressure on pension systems and healthcare budgets. Policymakers must find sustainable solutions to support retirees and maintain economic stability. Tight Labor Market: Despite demographic challenges, the Eurozone's labor market remains tight. Skill shortages persist in certain sectors, leading to wage pressures and potential productivity bottlenecks.
Inflation Insights: Japan and the United Kingdom are experiencing easing underlying inflation. This suggests that supply chain disruptions and energy price spikes may be temporary. However, central banks remain vigilant, closely monitoring inflation data to guide monetary policy decisions. Global Markets Monitor: APAC markets are closely watching upcoming elections (such as India's state elections) and inflation data. Investors are also awaiting Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Written by Erika Lau
As of Friday close: S&P500: 5432 (+1.6%) ; NADQ Comp: 17688 (+3.2%) ; S&P mid-cap 400: 2895 (-0.8%) ; Russell2000: 2006 (-0.01%) S&P500 and NADQ touched new highs pushed by AI enthusiasm and technology-related stocks, while small and mid-cap underperformed over the week. Core inflation fell to 3.4%, the lowest since April 2021. The Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation, which was announced on Thursday, came as a surprise by declining 0.2%, contrary to expectations of a slight increase. Furthermore, on a year-over-year basis, the core PPI decreased to 2.3%, putting an end to five consecutive months of growth. In a related trend, import prices also experienced a decline of 0.4% in May, marking their first decrease in four months. 10-year treasury yield decreased from 4.43% to 4.21% after higher-than-expected jobless claims built inflation pressure. IG corporate bond market was quiet over the week as investors awaited inflation release and Fed’s meeting.
In Japan, the stock markets had a mixed performance for the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 0.3% while the broader TOPIX Index declined by 0.3%. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) June meeting had a dovish tone, which supported the equity market. In the fixed income markets, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) decreased to 0.93% from 0.98% the previous week. The Japanese yen, already at historically low levels, weakened further against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching around JPY 157.5 from 156.6.
Chinese equities faced a decline during a short week, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures impacting the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.61%, while the blue chip CSI 300 decreased by 0.91%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.31% according to FactSet. Chinese markets were closed on Monday for the Dragon Boat Festival. China’s consumer price index showed a modest increase of 0.3% in May compared to the previous year, matching April’s rise. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, grew by 0.6%, slowing down from April’s 0.7% increase. On the other hand, the producer price index experienced a 1.4% decline compared to the previous year, marking its 20th consecutive month of decline. However, this decline was less severe than the 2.5% drop seen in April. Despite Beijing’s efforts to stimulate the economy and stabilize the markets, weak consumer confidence and a prolonged slump in the property sector have kept prices in China under pressure.
JP 1Q GDP: -0.5%, meet est. of -0.5%, down from prev. 0.1% JP Interest rate: 0.1%, meet est. of 0.1%, same as prev. UK GDP MoM: 0%, meet est. of 0%, down from prev. 0.4% US Core CPI MoM: 0.2%, miss est. of 0.3%, same as prev. US PPI MoM: -0.2%, miss est. of 0.1%, down from prev. 0.1% US Crude Oil Inventories 3.7M, beat est. of -1.2M, up from prev. 1.2M US Interest rate: 5.5%, meet est. of 5.5%, same as prev. US Initial jobless claims: 242K, miss est. of 225K, up from prev. 229K
Sources:
Written by Dacian Deng
The U.S. market experienced mixed results as longer-term bond yields fell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs, while smaller-cap indexes pulled back. Growth stocks outperformed value shares due to falling interest rates. However, the artificial intelligence (AI) sector saw some slowdown as U.S. officials slowed the issuance of licenses for AI chip sales to the Middle East and opened antitrust investigations into Microsoft and NVIDIA.
The major indexes had varied performances for the week, with the DJIA up 2.94%, S&P 500 up 12.10%, Nasdaq Composite up 14.13%, S&P MidCap 400 down 5.00%, and Russell 2000 down slightly by 0.03% year-to-date.
Despite positive data indicating a potential recovery in the property sector, stocks in China experienced a decline. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.16%. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.59%.
In economic news, the private Caixin/S&P Global survey showed a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, with a reading of 51.7 in May compared to 51.4 in April, indicating the seventh consecutive month of expansion. The Caixin services purchasing managers' index also exceeded expectations, reaching 54 in May, up from 52.5 in April. This private survey focused on smaller and export-oriented firms, adding to official data from the previous week, which showed an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in May.
Source:
Written by Erika Lau
US ended higher for the week as it tapped into the second week of the earnings release. A cooler labor market, as indicated by lower-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, lowered the inflationary pressure and gave investors a greater hope of loosening interest rates. Powell’s response to the data also pushed back stagflation worries which further encouraged investors.
For individual stocks, AAPL beat consensus revenue expectations and announced the largest buyback of 110bn USD helped boost investors’ confidence. TSLA also lifted the market after a 15% rally under China’s tentative approval of the self-driving technology.
Europe ended lower amid mixed earnings and an unsure interest rate outlook. The German DAX index experienced a decrease of 0.88%, while France’s CAC 40 Index saw a decline of 1.62%. Italy’s FTSE MIB index also weakened, with a decrease of 1.81%. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index registered a gain of 0.90% and reached a new high, primarily fueled by the robust performance of mining and energy stocks.
Chinese stocks rose during a week as investors expressed optimism regarding increased government assistance that China would utilize various monetary policy tools, such as potential interest rate reductions and adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio. SSEC rose by 0.52%, while the prominent CSI 300 index of blue-chip stocks saw a slight gain of 0.56%. A larger rally in Hong Kong with the surge of HSI by 4.67%.
Sources:
Written by Leo Xu Mingyuan
Stocks recorded their third consecutive week of broad losses, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of U.S. interest rates remaining high. Mega-cap technology shares lagged as rising rates placed a higher theoretical discount on future earnings.
Some strong economic data appeared to increase worries that the Federal Reserve would push back any interest rates cuts to the fall, if not to 2025. On Monday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.7% in March, well above consensus expectations of around 0.3%, while February’s gain was revised upward to 0.9%. The retail sales data helped push the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest intraday level since last November.
Fed officials expressed their concern with recent economic data. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated at an economic conference that "recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence."
Consumer prices in the UK grew an annual 3.2% in March, down from 3.4% in February. Although the inflation rate fell to its lowest level in two and a half years, the decline was slightly less than forecast by Bank of England (BoE) due to elevated price growth in fuel and communication goods. Higher oil prices and the somewhat sticky inflation data prompted financial markets to push out expectations for a first cut in UK interest rates from June to sometime in the fall.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers at the IMF meeting reiterated that June was the likely target date for lowering borrowing costs, barring unexpected economic shocks. Three to four rate cuts this year priced in by markets were in line with the bank’s economic outlook.
Chinese equities rose after the economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.52%, while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.89%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gave up 2.89% as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East hurt investor sentiment.
China’s gross domestic product expanded an above-consensus 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, accelerating slightly from the 5.2% growth in last year’s fourth quarter. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China injected RMB 100 billion into the banking system via its medium-term lending facility compared with RMB 170 billion in maturing loans and left the lending rate unchanged, as expected. The operation resulted in a net withdrawal of RMB 70 billion from the banking system, marking the second cash extraction this year.
Source:
Written by Jonathan Chen
While the S&P 500 ended a record-setting streak by falling just below the flatline, it still managed to secure a win for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight increase of about 0.2%, whereas the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced a minor drop close to 0.4%. This mixed closing was amid investors bracing for the Fed's upcoming meeting, focusing on potential rate cuts and the central bank's latest viewpoint on inflation and economic growth.
The week also highlighted anticipation for major tech companies' earnings reports, with Alphabet and Microsoft set to start the earnings season. These reports are keenly watched due to the significant influence these companies have on both the global economy and investors' portfolios.
Furthermore, the US market witnessed crude oil gaining more than 6% over the week, driven by bullish economic data and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea region. This rise in oil prices was supported by freezing temperatures affecting US production, a reduction in crude inventories, and various global economic factors.
The Swiss National Bank made a surprise interest rate cut, becoming the first major financial center to do so recently. Investors were also anticipating major economies' manufacturing PMI and CPI data as they continue to address inflation concerns.
Additionally, European stocks experienced mixed movements, with the tech sector influencing Wall Street's performance and Bitcoin's value jumping significantly. The Dutch TTF benchmark for European gas prices saw a significant decrease, suggesting a possible easing of the energy crisis.
Chinese regulators reportedly blocked Syngenta's planned $9bn Shanghai IPO due to liquidity concerns. Indian stocks did not experience the traditional pre-election rally as the country prepares for parliamentary elections; US yields and a significant earthquake impacted markets like Nikkei and Hang Seng. Meanwhile, China's solar sector is facing oversupply and low prices, suggesting a year of consolidation ahead.
Source:
Written by Kevin Xia
Oil Prices Rise on Strong Global Demand and Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Oil prices rose on March 13, 2024, on expectations of strong global demand, including in the United States, and as even somewhat sticky U.S. inflation did not dent expectations the Fed might start cutting rates soon. Brent futures for May delivery were up 36 cents, or 0.44%, at $82.28 a barrel.
US Consumer Prices Rise: The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month of February and 3.2% from a year ago. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.
US Fed: The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady Wednesday for the fifth consecutive meeting, as the central bank awaits more data to determine when to cut rates.
European and US Equity Futures Trade Higher: On March 18, 2024, European and US equity futures traded higher following a selloff in equities and bonds when markets rounded off a week that saw hot inflation concerns roiled markets.
Europe's Worst Earnings Season Since Covid: Europe had its worst earnings season since the onset of Covid.
Red Sea Situation and Fruit Exports: Maersk's March 2024 market update covered the Red Sea situation, fruit exports, port updates, inland solutions, labor regulations, and last-mile strategies.
Eurozone Inflation Drops to 2.4%: The European Central Bank (ECB) was slower to raise interest rates, but that did not stop eurozone inflation from dropping to 2.4%, just above the 2% target rate.
Asia Markets Fall Ahead of Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: On March 18, 2024, Asia-Pacific markets fell ahead of central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Asian Markets Mixed Ahead of Bank of Japan Decision: On March 19, 2024, Asian markets were mixed ahead of a much-anticipated Bank of Japan meeting.
Written by Erika Lau
The U.S. stock market mostly ended higher for the week, driven by favorable inflation news. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reached record levels, with the S&P 500 having its strongest start to the year since 2019. The gains were broad-based, with an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 outperforming the market capitalization version. Large, technology-oriented growth stocks continued to outperform, contributing to the overall performance.
The release of the Commerce Department’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, helped boost market sentiment. The index rose 2.8% for the 12 months ended in January, in line with expectations, alleviating concerns raised by the Labor Department’s consumer price index, which showed higher-than-expected core prices. Despite the positive reaction in the stock market, Federal Reserve policymakers maintained their stance of not rushing to cut interest rates.
The manufacturing sector, however, surrendered some of its recent momentum, with the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) gauge of manufacturing activity falling below expectations in February. Durable goods showed a more positive outlook, and personal incomes saw a significant increase in February.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached its lowest level in weeks, reflecting the positive reaction to the PCE data and the downside surprise in the manufacturing sector. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns as yields decreased, and municipal bonds received an additional boost from light issuance.
In the investment-grade corporate bond market, spreads widened due to heavy supply, as February saw a record-breaking amount of new issuance. High yield market trading activity was subdued early in the week but tightened credit spreads following the release of the core PCE price data.
Overall, the U.S. stock market experienced gains, driven by positive inflation news, while the manufacturing sector showed a slight decline. Bond markets reacted positively to the economic data, and corporate bond issuance reached a new record in February.
